Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
SINNERS, foreground from left: Michael B. Jordan, director Ryan Coolger, on set, 2025. © Warner Bros. / Courtesy Everett Collection
©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection
Oscars Commentary (Updated: Jan. 22, 2026): In one morning, the Oscar race went from settled to chaotic, and the reason is simple: “Sinners.”
For months, Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” looked like a juggernaut poised to coast to the finish line. Instead, the race cracked wide open thanks to Ryan Coogler’s audacious vampire epic “Sinners,” which stormed the nominations with a record-breaking 16 mentions — the most ever for a single film.
“One Battle After Another” remains a formidable contender with 13 nods, a sign of deep industry respect for both the film and the auteur, now a 14-time nominee who has yet to take home a competitive Oscar. But a surprise omission — Chase Infiniti missed the best actress race — may expose just enough vulnerability to invite a challenger, and that challenger is Coogler’s box office smash.
Other contenders landed respectable hauls, but none assembled the kind of nomination package that usually produces a best picture winner.
Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet,” with eight nominations, is elegant and admired. Still, key misses — notably Paul Mescal in supporting actor and the film’s editing — make an upset difficult, even with lead actress Jessie Buckley positioned as the most likely acting winner of the season.
Guillermo del Toro’s Gothic adaptation of “Frankenstein” received nine nominations. But the absence of a directing nod is historically tough to overcome, especially in a year dominated by two heavyweight frontrunners.
What separates “Sinners” isn’t merely the volume it amassed. It’s also that it clearly resonated across all 19 branches of the Academy. Coogler enters the race having shattered records for Black representation. Ten Black artists are nominated for their work on the film, tying “Judas and the Black Messiah” (2021) for the most from a single movie. Coogler is only the third Black filmmaker nominated in the same year for producing, directing and screenwriting, joining Jordan Peele and Spike Lee, and the seventh Black man nominated for directing. His producing partner and wife, Zinzi Coogler, also made history as the first Filipina producer and the third Black woman nominated for best picture.
The film’s impact stretches across the crafts, with breakthroughs in cinematography — Autumn Durald Arkapaw is the first woman of color to be recognized — and costume design for two-time winner Ruth E. Carter, now the most-nominated Black woman in Oscar history.
More important, there’s precedent for an upset.
The race between “La La Land” and “Moonlight” from 2016 proved that a timely and urgent drama could overtake a seemingly unstoppable musical frontrunner. And “Moonlight” achieved that with only a Golden Globe for best picture (drama) and a WGA prize under its belt.
When the World War I epic “1917” (2019) swept key precursors, only for the Academy ultimately to crown Bong Joon Ho’s “Parasite” the first non-English-language best picture winner, it showed the group could rise to the occasion of a historic moment, even though the film had just a SAG ensemble win to its name.
Overall, the noms revealed an unusually top-heavy year. Only 50 films were recognized across all categories, matching last year’s total and marking the lowest number since 2008. Whether that reflects shrinking viewing habits or an oversaturated landscape remains up for debate.
In some areas, the Academy continued to expand its horizons. A landmark four non-English-language performances earned acting nominations, and international cinema placed two films in both best picture and international feature for the second consecutive year. Latino artists posted historic gains across producing (Guillermo del Toro), acting (Wagner Moura for “The Secret Agent”) and animation (Yvett Merino for “Zootopia 2”). At the same time, women reached new highs in directing, sound — with “Sirāt” fielding the first all-women sound team — and overall representation, with a record 74 women nominated.
Taken together, this year’s nominations paint a portrait of an Academy in transition. Still imperfect and still evolving, it is increasingly responsive to films that marry craft, ambition and cultural relevance.
What once felt like an inevitable model now feels thrillingly uncertain.
Projected winner leaders (films): “Sinners” (7), “One Battle After Another” (3), “F1,” “Frankenstein” and “Sentimental Value” (2)
Projected winner leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (10), Netflix (3), Apple (2), Neon (2)
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
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Best Picture
Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Ed Guiney & Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone and Lars Knudsen
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski and Jerry Bruckheimer
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Scott Stuber
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas and Timothée Chalamet
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Adam Somner, Sara Murphy and Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Emilie Lesclaux
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer and Michael Heimler -
Director
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection Paul Thomas Anderson ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ryan Coogler
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Josh Safdie
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Joachim Trier
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) -
Actor
Image Credit: ©Sony Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection Timothée Chalamet
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke ***
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael B. Jordan
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura
“The Secret Agent” (Neon) -
Actress
Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection Jessie Buckley ***
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Rose Byrne
“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
Kate Hudson
“Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Renate Reinsve
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Emma Stone
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) -
Supporting Actor
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection Benicio Del Toro
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jacob Elordi
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Delroy Lindo
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Sean Penn
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Stellan Skarsgård ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) -
Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection Elle Fanning
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Amy Madigan
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
Wunmi Mosaku
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) -
Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Written by Robert Kaplow
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Written by Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators – Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Written by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Written by Ryan Coogler -
Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Screenplay by Will Tracy
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar -
Casting
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Nina Gold
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Jennifer Venditti
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Cassandra Kulukundis
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Gabriel Domingues
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Francine Maisler -
Animated Feature
Image Credit: ©Walt Disney Co./Courtesy Everett Collection “Arco” (Neon)
Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas and Natalie Portman
“Elio” (Pixar)
Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina and Mary Alice Drumm
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago and Henri Magalon
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino -
Production Design
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection “Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Hannah Bleachler, Monique Champagne -
Cinematography
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Dan Laustsen
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Darius Khondji
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Michael Bauman
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Autumn Durald Arkapaw
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Adolpho Veloso -
Costume Design
Image Credit: ©20th Century Studios/Courtesy Everett Collection “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
Deborah L. Scott
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Kate Hawley
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Malgosia Turzanska
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Miyako Bellizzi
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ruth E. Carter -
Film Editing
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) ***
Stephen Mirrione
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Andy Jurgensen
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Olivier Bugge Coutté
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Michael P. Shawver -
Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection “Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
“Kokuho” (GKids)
Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein
“The Ugly Stepsister” (Independent Film Company/Shudder)
Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg -
Sound
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) ***
Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker
“Sirât” (Neon)
Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas -
Visual Effects
Image Credit: ©HLN/Courtesy Everett Collection “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson
“Jurassic World: Rebirth” (Universal Pictures)
David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould
“The Lost Bus” (Apple Original Films)
Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie DeanOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Original Score
Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Jerskin Fendrix
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Max Richter
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ludwig Göransson -
Original Song
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection “Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment)
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park
“I Lied To You” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson
“Sweet Dreams Of Joy” from “Viva Verdi!” (Self-Distributed)
Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike
“Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; Lyric by Nick Cave -
Documentary Feature
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection “The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films)
Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman
“Come See Me in the Good Light” (Apple Original Films)
Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro and Stef Willen
“Cutting Through Rocks” (Self-Distributed)
Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni
“Mr. Nobody Against Putin” (Self-Distributed)
Nominees to be determined
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee -
International Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection “It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon)
dir. Jafar Panahi
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) ***
dir. Joachim Trier
“Sirât” from Spain (Neon)
dir. Oliver Laxe
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Willa)
dir. Kaouther Ben Hania -
Animated Short
“Butterfly” (Sacrebleu Productions)
Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens
“Forevergreen” (Self-Distributed)
Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears
“The Girl Who Cried Pearls” (National Film Board of Canada)
Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
“Retirement Plan” (Self-Distributed) ***
John Kelly and Andrew Freedman
“The Three Sisters” (Polydont Films/Rymanco Ventures)
Konstantin BronzitOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Documentary Short
“All the Empty Rooms” (Netflix) ***
Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
“Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud” (HBO Documentary Films)
Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo
“Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” (Sky)
Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins
“The Devil is Busy” (HBO Documentary Films)
Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir
“Perfectly a Strangeness” (Second Sight Pictures)
Alison McAlpineOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Live Action Short
Image Credit: The New Yorker “Butcher’s Stain” (Tel Aviv University Steve Tisch School of Film and Television)
Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi
“A Friend of Dorothy” (Self-Distributed)
Lee Knight and James Dean
“Jane Austen’s Period Drama” (Self-Distributed)
Julia Aks and Steve Pinder
“The Singers” (Netflix)
Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
“Two People Exchanging Saliva” (Canal+/The New Yorker) ***
Alexandre Singh and Natalie MusteataOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Source: variety.com
