Don’t be surprised if … Maxey leads in points, Tatum returns soon

Every week in the NBA presents a unique narrative, filled with both unexpected highs and lows. Fantasy basketball managers face the challenge of determining which trends to trust as they plan ahead. If any of these predictions materialize … prepare not to be surprised.

Don’t be surprised if … Philadelphia 76ers PG/SG Tyrese Maxey ends the season as the top scorer in fantasy points

This announcement may not seem overly audacious, given that Maxey has already achieved this recognition heading into the All-Star break, amassing 2,804 fantasy points (averaging 53.9 per game). Last season, players like Oklahoma City Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic clearly stood out, each surpassing 4,000 points. Jokic had an astounding average of 69.7 fPPG, while Gilgeous-Alexander, who won league MVP, averaged 58.7 fPPG. Meanwhile, Maxey logged only 52 games last season with a 45.5 fPPG average.

This season, Maxey has truly emerged as a star player, although it’s essential to note that his durability significantly contributes to his lead in fantasy points. Maxey is logging the most minutes per game (38.6 MPG) and has missed just two games. Gilgeous-Alexander (abdomen) has been sidelined for the five games leading to the break and may miss more. Jokic (knee) missed 16 games before returning recently. though they may be more valuable fantasy options on a per-game basis (alongside Los Angeles Lakers PG Luka Doncic), Maxey has been consistently available, which is crucial.

Should fantasy managers in points leagues consider trading Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic, or Doncic straight up for Maxey? Injuries can happen to any player, including Maxey. No player has averaged over 38 MPG since James Harden with the 2015-16 Houston Rockets. The 76ers have indicated they wish to limit Maxey’s minutes and have already made some adjustments this February. Yet, Maxey continues to thrive, even with Joel Embiid performing at a high level. The Thunder and Nuggets are likely safer bets for playoff positioning, which might lead them to limit their MVP candidates’ minutes. The 76ers do not have that luxury.

While I wouldn’t trade Gilgeous-Alexander or Jokic for Maxey, making a trade for Doncic could be a reasonable choice.

Tatum and the Celtics are approaching his return from an Achilles injury with great caution, not committing to any regular-season games just yet. Don’t be fooled—Tatum is already practicing and has participated in 5-on-5 scrimmages. The competitive Celtics want Tatum back on the court as soon as possible. He may have some restrictions on his minutes or be rested during back-to-back games, but he will play well before the playoffs, providing significant help to fantasy managers. While we shouldn’t expect him to repeat his 48.4 fantasy points per game from last season, over 40 fPPG in around 30 minutes seems quite achievable.

The Celtics will face off against the rival 76ers on Sunday night, March 1, in a nationally aired game on NBC—a perfect stage for one of the top 10 players to make a grand return from injury. It might feel premature, considering he played last season’s playoffs, but every player heals differently. The fact that Tyrese Haliburton and Damian Lillard may not return this season shouldn’t change how we view Tatum’s status.

It’s surprising that Tatum has only recently crossed the 50% mark in ESPN standard leagues, while players like Memphis Grizzlies PG Ty Jerome, LA Clippers SF/SG Bennedict Mathurin, and Miami Heat SF/SG Jaime Jaquez Jr. are being added in various leagues at a higher rate. While we shouldn’t expect Tatum to score 50 fantasy points on March 1 … betting against it could also be unwise.

Elsewhere around the NBA

• Speculating about which star players might not be in action during the final weeks or months can be frustrating. yet, clarity exists for Washington Wizards PG Trae Young and C/PF Anthony Davis. The Wizards excel in transparency (in this context). Will Indiana Pacers C Ivica Zubac (ankle) make an appearance for his new team before October? That may seem overreaching. He was healthy when the Clippers traded him, but now he’s apparently not, which is disappointing as we need those rebounds. Utah Jazz C Jusuf Nurkic isn’t injured, yet his playing time is minimal. Where have all the rebounders gone (apart from Cardwell, lol)?

• The Milwaukee Bucks face pressure to let PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) play, or suffer the backlash from fans and the league. Giannis himself has claimed he’s healthy and ready to contribute. While it’s acceptable to rest Zubac, Giannis is a top-5 talent. His insistence on playing is a positive sign for fantasy managers, highlighting this new norm. Don’t expect Giannis to participate in every game, but around 45 fantasy points per game would be welcome.

• It’s a bit surprising that new Bucks acquisition SG/SF Cam Thomas hasn’t made the most-added list after scoring 34 points against the Magic in a recent game. Fantasy managers usually jump on performances like that, but it’s worth noting that Thomas contributed only 44 ESPN fantasy points, as he doesn’t provide much else statistically. but, Embiid has logged at least 44 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games.

• Dallas Mavericks PG/SG Kyrie Irving (knee) started Wednesday with a roster percentage of 58.8% in ESPN leagues, significantly higher than Tatum. The only scenario in which Irving would play this season was if the Mavericks (like the Celtics) were in contention, but we were aware months ago that wasn’t going to happen. Let him go; he’s not playing this season.

• Two teams feature a duo of “qualified” players among the top 15 in assists per game—obviously, the Nuggets with Jokic and Jamal Murray. The other team doesn’t include the Lakers with Doncic and LeBron James, as the latter doesn’t qualify. yet, two Jazz players do. It’s uncertain when Keyonte George (ankle) might return, but backup Isaiah Collier is racking up assists in his absence. Collier is averaging 9.5 APG over his last 12 starts, comparable to what Cade Cunningham averages. though he isn’t a prolific scorer and has struggled with his 3-point shooting, his assists and steals are impressive.

• It would be surprising if LeBron considers retiring from the NBA after this season. Judging by his stature, he seems like a prime candidate for an extended, attention-catching celebration, with franchises hosting ceremonies and presenting elaborate gifts. He desires success and, rightfully so, deserves it. At 41, James is still averaging 42.4 fPPG, ranking 21st in the league. This isn’t a situation like Kyle Lowry at the end of the bench. James will return for the 2026-27 season, at a minimum, which is encouraging news for fantasy managers. Target him in a dynasty league if you’re positioning to win next season. Flags fly forever.