-
Kiley McDaniel
Multiple Authors
Now that we’ve observed college players during the opening week of the season, it’s time for our initial assessment of potential top picks in the MLB draft this July.
This draft class is considered above average primarily due to its top five players, especially the leading two. At this time last year, I identified two players within the 50 FV tier, but none others were rated higher, and both (Jace LaViolette and Jamie Arnold) experienced some regression in the spring. The top of the draft board and the first round appear strong, particularly among college position players. While collegiate pitching is solid, it lacks the excitement, except for Jackson Flora’s impressive opening day. High school position players are also robust, with potential for growth if a few high-variance athletes step up this spring.
The players listed were ranked using the FV (future value) system I apply to pro prospects. For insight into where these athletes would rank if they turned pro now, refer to my offseason MLB prospect rankings; however, these grades will typically improve as the spring season unfolds and more information becomes available. The digits in parentheses represent the player’s age on draft day, a crucial metric for teams’ draft models since younger players allow for greater projection.
60 FV Tier (Prospects ranked 2-14 in the pro top 100)
1. Roch Cholowsky (21.3), SS, UCLA
Cholowsky was projected as a late first- to early second-round talent in the 2023 draft, but a hefty price steered him toward UCLA; that choice clearly paid off. He had a fantastic 2024, smashing 23 home runs with a 1.190 OPS, and he’s begun this season well with three homers (including one hit at 111 mph off the bat, close to his career-best exit velocity) and three doubles over four games.
Cholowsky is about an average runner, yet his defensive instincts and quickness set him apart; he’s regarded as a plus defender with a powerful arm. Concerns from his high school days focused on his offensive potential, but he has developed notable raw power, complemented by keen bat-to-ball skills and pitch selection. The worry remains that his contact rates and OBP might be merely average against top-tier pro pitching (though he would still likely achieve his potential for around 25 home runs), and his build and speed could limit his baserunning value, but that’s a minor consideration. This profile closely resembles that of Dansby Swanson or Willy Adames, and Cholowsky is still a strong favorite to be the first overall pick this year, likely also the top choice in many previous years.
55 FV Tier (Prospects ranked 15-45 in the pro top 100)
2. Grady Emerson (18.4), SS, Fort Worth Christian HS (Texas), Texas commit
Emerson has long been viewed as the top player in the 2026 prep class. Standing at 6-foot-2, this left-handed hitting shortstop possesses above-average tools along with the essential skills, performance history, and age desired by teams at the top of the draft. The only significant drawback is that he doesn’t have the elite tools of Bobby Witt Jr., Bryce Harper, or Justin Upton at the same phase, which is an exceptionally high standard. Some scouts project Emerson as a potential plus to plus-plus hitter with significant power who can remain at shortstop long-term, making him a contender for the top pick if Cholowsky falters this spring. Emerson could easily climb into the 60 FV tier by draft day.
50 FV Tier (Prospects ranked 46-120 in the pro top 100)
3. Justin Lebron (21.7), SS, Alabama
4. Jackson Flora (21.1), RHP, UC Santa Barbara
5. Drew Burress (21.6), CF, Georgia Tech
Lebron has been predominantly ranked second or third on this list through the summer and fall, but some scouts are now questioning his hit tool, leading to a slight drop for certain teams. His other tools remain plus, so a strong showing in SEC play should maintain his position. I want to evaluate more of Lebron before dropping him further, and I’m considering elevating Flora, but I need to see more from him as well. Flora has reached 96-99 mph and even touched 100 mph with impressive pitch shape/movement, aided by nearly 7 feet of extension; there’s frontline potential if he continues down this path and maintains control. Burress, standing at 5-9, has an aggressive swing, which is generally viewed negatively by scouts. yet, he plays like a center fielder and has achieved a .356 batting average with 44 home runs and 41 doubles for the Yellow Jackets.
45+ FV Tier (Prospects ranked 121-200 in the pro top 100)
6. Derek Curiel (21.1), CF, LSU
7. Cameron Flukey (21.2), RHP, Coastal Carolina
8. Gio Rojas (19.0), LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS (FL), Miami commit
9. AJ Gracia (21.7), CF, Virginia
Curiel can hit effectively, has moderate power, and he might also play center field; this blend can sometimes translate well in pro baseball, leading to success reminiscent of Mets OF Carson Benge. Flukey possesses one of the best fastballs and starter characteristics in the draft, but his breaking pitches are less impressive, and he rarely uses his changeup. I reported on Wednesday that Flukey would miss his start this week due to a precautionary decision unrelated to arm issues.
Rojas may be older for this class, but he showcases four above-average pitches and has stood out as a prospect for years, similar to Emerson. Gracia’s swing can trend upwards at times, and while he may transition to a corner outfield spot, his offensive potential keeps him in this group. Scouts generally agreed on keeping these nine players within the top tier, but opinions varied considerably on those just outside.
45 FV Tier
10. Kevin Roberts Jr. (18.0), CF, Jackson Prep HS (Mississippi), Florida commit
11. Tyler Spangler (18.8), SS, De La Salle HS (California), Stanford commit
12. Rocco Maniscalco (17.2), SS, Oxford HS (Alabama), Mississippi State commit
13. Blake Bowen (18.5), CF, JSerra Catholic HS (California), Oregon State commit
14. Christopher Hacopian (21.9), SS, Texas A&M
15. Liam Peterson (21.1), RHP, Florida
16. Jacob Lombard (18.8), SS, Gulliver HS (Florida), Miami commit
17. Eric Becker (21.2), SS, Virginia
18. Will Brick (18.1), C, Christian Brothers HS (Tennessee), Mississippi State commit
19. Carson Bolemon (19.3), LHP, Southside Christian HS (South Carolina), Wake Forest commit
20. Sawyer Strosnider (21.0), RF, TCU
21. Vahn Lackey (21.0), C, Georgia Tech
22. Logan Schmidt (18.0), LHP, Ganesha HS (California), LSU commit
23. Gabe Gaeckle (21.8), RHP, Arkansas
24. James Clark (18.8), SS, St. John Bosco HS (California), Duke commit
25. Caden Sorrell (21.3), CF, Texas A&M
26. Trevor Condon (18.5), CF, Etowah HS (Georgia), Tennessee commit
27. Tyler Bell (21.0), SS, Kentucky
28. Chris Rembert (21.0), 2B, Auburn
29. Jensen Hirschkorn (18.6), RHP, Kingsburg HS (California), LSU commit
30. Ryder Helfrick (21.4), C, Arkansas
31. Ace Reese (21.2), 3B, Mississippi State
32. Coleman Borthwick (18.2), RHP, South Walton HS (Florida), Auburn commit
Industry consensus indicates Rojas is viewed as the top prep arm, Bolemon ranks second, Schmidt often takes third, and Hirschkorn typically lands fourth. yet, numerous candidates emerge after that. Borthwick garners significant support for the fifth spot due to his two-way athleticism and accuracy, but there are additional contenders in the next tier. The depth of this draft is characterized by college hitters, presenting a variety within this group. Among infielders, Hacopian possibly offers the best hit/power combination, whereas Strosnider and Sorrell are viewed as power-over-hit prospects facing defensive positioning challenges. Bell and Rembert prioritize contact, while Helfrick provides the most defensive value. The upper segment of this tier is packed with high-upside prep position players likely to reach the top nine; Spangler and Maniscalco showcase the best hitting and defensive skills. Bowen and Lombard display significant power, though both invite concerns regarding their batting capabilities. Following a reclassification from the 2027 class, Maniscalco is now one of the youngest potential first-rounders in years; age plays a substantial role in draft models for high school position players.
40+ FV Tier
33. Eric Booth Jr. (18.0), CF, Oak Grove HS (MS), Vanderbilt commit
34. Joey Volchko (21.1), RHP, Georgia
35. Joseph Contreras (18.2), RHP, Blessed Trinity Catholic HS (GA), Vanderbilt commit
36. Zion Rose (21.1), CF, Louisville
37. Kaden Waechter (18.9), RHP, Jesuit HS (FL), Florida State commit
38. Connor Comeau (17.9), SS, Anderson HS (TX), Texas A&M commit
39. Jared Grindlinger (17.2), LHP/RF, Huntington Beach HS (CA), uncommitted
40. Cole Koeninger (18.9), SS/RHP, Keller HS (TX), Tennessee commit
41. James Jorgensen (18.8), RHP, Jesuit HS (TX), Texas commit
42. Tegan Kuhns (21.1), RHP, Tennessee
43. Chase Brunson (21.0), CF, TCU
44. Cole Carlon (21.1), LHP, Arizona State
45. Keon Johnson (18.3), SS, First Presbyterian HS (GA), Vanderbilt commit
46. Jake Brown (21.5), RF, LSU
47. Brady Harris (18.5), CF, Trinity Christian HS (FL), Florida commit
48. Matt Ponatoski (18.4), RHP/SS, Archbishop Moeller HS (OH), Kentucky commit
49. Mason Edwards (21.0), LHP, USC
50. Ethan Kleinschmit (21.2), LHP, Oregon State
Waechter (son of six-year MLB veteran Doug), Contreras (son of 11-year MLB veteran Jose), and Ponatoski (four-star quarterback prospect), share intriguing backgrounds in this tier. Jorgensen has skyrocketed in rankings, rising multiple rounds since the year began as his stuff has improved notably. Volchko has also risen following a strong opening weekend this college season, sitting at 94-97 mph with his cutter while incorporating a sweeper and curveball more frequently than previous years. Brown kicked off the season impressively, hitting four home runs (including a personal record for exit velocity) over four games alongside a mere five strikeouts.
Recently, Grindlinger was acknowledged as a 2026 draft prospect, which came as a surprise. He joins Maniscalco among the youngest elite prospects in draft history. Grindlinger showcases potential as a corner outfielder, though early evaluations suggest he’s currently a more promising choice on the mound; his background resembles that of Cam Caminiti, who was drafted 24th overall by the Atlanta Braves in 2024. Grindlinger can reach 95 mph on the mound, featuring a changeup that occasionally exceeds average quality and a couple of solid breaking pitches. He demonstrates two-way talent with promising future capabilities, making him easier for scouts to track as his evaluation process begins promptly.
40 FV Tier
51. Maddox Molony (21.8), SS, Oregon
52. Carson Tinney (21.3), C, Texas
53. Gavin Grahovac (21.5), 3B, Texas A&M
54. Aiden Robbins (21.5), CF, Texas
55. Archer Horn (18.4), SS/RHP, St. Ignatius Prep HS (CA), Stanford commit
56. Jarren Advincula (21.5), 2B, Georgia Tech
57. Jason Decaro (20.2), RHP, North Carolina
58. Denton Lord (18.6), RHP, South Walton HS (FL), Mississippi State commit
59. Bo Lowrance (18.8), 3B, Christ Church Episcopal HS (SC), Virginia commit
60. Ryan Lynch (21.1), RHP, North Carolina
61. Ethan Norby (21.5), LHP, East Carolina
62. Cade Townsend (21.2), RHP, Ole Miss
63. Tommy LaPour (21.3), RHP, TCU
64. Will Yow (18.6), SS, St. Anne’s-Belfield HS (VA), Virginia commit
This group displays notable diversity, with Grahovac representing a power-over-contact player suited for a corner position, while Advincula embodies the opposite profile. Norby likely faces undersized concerns as a starter, whereas Lynch (who registered up to 94-97 mph, peaking at 98 mph in his opening game) and Townsend possess lively pitches that currently reflect a mix of starter and reliever characteristics. Lord is regarded as a classic prep projection right-hander at 6-8 and teams with Borthwick for the best high school rotation duo in the nation. Yow has garnered attention this fall after being relatively unknown prior to it (akin to Michael Oliveto’s journey in the 2025 class, who was eventually selected 34th overall), and teams continue to catch up. LaPour is missing this week’s start due to elbow soreness, which is certainly a concern to monitor.
