What we learned in Duke’s win over Michigan, Arizona’s over Houston

With fewer than 45 days remaining until the Final Four, fans of men’s college basketball were treated to a glimpse of potential national semifinal matchups in Indianapolis.

The top four teams in the latest AP poll dominated a packed Saturday schedule, with No. 3 Duke and No. 4 Arizona defeating No. 1 Michigan and No. 2 Houston, respectively. This marked the first instance in which the top two teams lost on the same day since February 8, 2025.

What insights do these results provide regarding each contender? And how should we rank all four teams following this eventful day? ESPN’s Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf provide their analysis.

Insights on Duke

Duke is undoubtedly in the elite tier of college basketball teams. While their record and ranking reflect this stature, they had yet to be fully acknowledged among the prime national championship contenders this season. Teams like Michigan, Arizona, UConn, and Houston have previously held that title. Now, Duke is firmly part of that conversation, positioning themselves for a potential No. 1 overall seed on Selection Sunday.

Any doubts about Duke’s Cameron Boozer as the clear National Player of the Year favorite have been extinguished. Though Michigan senior Yaxel Lendeborg outscored the freshman in the first half, Boozer elevated Duke’s performance at critical moments. He concluded the game with 18 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists, clinching seven consecutive points for Duke in the final minutes.

yet, Saturday’s game showcased more than just Boozer’s talent. Duke guard Caleb support made significant perimeter shots and managed the ball well. Patrick Ngongba II influenced both ends of the court. Nikolas Khamenia provided solid minutes off the bench, and Isaiah Evans, despite not having a great shooting day, maintained his confidence on offense.

Duke may not boast the most explosive offense compared to their rivals. But with a defense functioning at such a high level like Saturday’s, they don’t need to consistently score 80 or 90 points—this could be their key separation factor come March. — Borzello

Insights on Michigan

Michigan failed to showcase all the elements that have contributed to their supremacy in college basketball this season—along with all the factors that facilitated their recent easy win over Purdue earlier in the week—on Saturday.

A major concern arose with Michigan’s frontcourt. Typically unrivaled, Coach Dusty May’s strategy of utilizing large lineups to overpower opponents fell short. For perhaps the first time this season, the Wolverines struggled against the competition’s frontcourt. They entered the match averaging 41 points in the paint and had a notable rebound margin of almost 10 boards. Duke outperformed the Wolverines in paint scoring, 34-24, and in rebounding, with a 41-28 advantage. This marked the first instance this season where Michigan faced a double-digit rebounding deficit.

Michigan could have potentially mitigated their lack of interior scoring had they converted shots like they did against the Boilermakers—where they sank 13 of 23 triples. yet, they managed only 6 for 25 from deep against Duke, hitting just one three-pointer from 9:40 in the first half until 3:50 remaining in the game. Elliot Cadeau, Trey McKenney, Nimari Burnett, and L.J. Cason collectively made two three-point baskets.

This loss likely won’t drastically change their reputation as national championship favorites—on another day, those open threes go in, Aday Mara avoids foul trouble, and so forth—but it has certainly placed a roadblock in their previously smooth path to a national title. — Borzello

Insights on Arizona

The Wildcats showcased their capability to defeat any opponent in the country, especially evident in one of college basketball’s toughest venues against a top-tier team.

Arizona had been nearly flawless until recent losses against Kansas and Texas Tech. even with that dip, they have remained one of the nation’s most persistent contenders over the past four months. More significantly, they continue to excel during critical season-defining moments, proving it once again on Saturday.

Arizona’s defensive performance after halftime was stellar, dramatically stifling the Cougars’ scoring. Houston endured an almost eight-minute scoring drought in the second half, which marked their longest of the season. Jaden Bradley provided essential contributions, finishing with 17 points, while Anthony Dell’Orso added 22 off the bench, and Ivan Kharchenkov chipped in 16 points. The Wildcats struggled from three-point range, shooting only 25% and failed to extend their lead beyond 10 points. — Medcalf

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Arizona Wildcats vs. Houston Cougars: Game Highlights

Arizona Wildcats vs. Houston Cougars: Game Highlights

Insights on Houston

Typically, Kelvin Sampson’s Houston squads thrive in hard-fought battles, but once again, the Cougars fell victim to a scoring drought they couldn’t shake off.

Houston went nearly eight minutes without scoring during the second half against Arizona. While the Wildcats’ defense played a critical role in this struggle, the Cougars must recognize that to clinch a national title in April, they need to secure vital baskets. They were also outscored 21-9 in the last 11 minutes of their 70-67 defeat to Iowa State on Monday.

Can they match the offensive firepower necessary to compete with America’s elite teams? The NCAA tournament is often determined by standout playmakers, and while the Cougars have them, their failure to overcome two significant droughts in consecutive games raises concerns. Their recent losses indicate that unless star freshman Kingston Flemings can step up in pivotal moments, more scoring slumps could occur when it matters most. — Medcalf

Current Rankings of These Teams

Borzello: Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Houston.

1. Duke: Is there any valid argument for placing another team at the top? Duke just triumphed over Michigan on a neutral court and demonstrated they don’t need the most dynamic offense to defeat an elite team. With just two losses this season—one by one to Texas Tech after leading by 17, and another by three to North Carolina after leading by 13—they showed they can close out games against high-level opponents.

2. Arizona: Tommy Lloyd’s squad possesses an impressive wins list, including the victory at Houston, along with wins at UConn and over Florida and Alabama. This victory stands out as one of the toughest wins we have seen all season, considering they played without Koa Peat and Dwayne Aristode, and with a less than fully healthy Brayden Burries alongside Motiejus Krivas and Tobe Awaka in foul trouble. Their ability to clinch the win shows a level of toughness that previous Arizona teams lacked.

3. Michigan: even with the setback, the Wolverines still remain strong contenders for the national championship. Their ability to stay competitive until the final minute against Duke—even after being dominated in the paint and missing numerous open threes—testifies to their potential. yet, they have certainly been shaken off their pedestal, raising questions about their offensive strategy as games wind down.

4. Houston: The Cougars faced a challenging week with two losses. My main concern is their reliance on forcing turnovers for offensive opportunities. When they cannot convert easy points or pressure teams effectively, their success heavily relies on their guards’ shooting ability. Their guards are elite, which isn’t necessarily detrimental, but it’s a factor worth observing. Iowa State and Arizona had minimal turnovers against Houston, combining for just eight, which led to a mere three points off turnovers; the Cougars typically force nearly 15 turnovers per game and score around 19 points off those turnovers.

Medcalf: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Houston.

1. Duke: The Blue Devils executed essential plays down the stretch of an intense game—one that could pave the way for a rematch in March. They have established themselves as the top team in America at present and are helmed by the best player in the country, Cameron Boozer. It’s hard to argue against them taking the top spot.

2. Michigan: The Wolverines stayed competitive throughout their loss to Duke, despite their three-point shooting struggles which caused them to fall short in those crucial final moments.

3. Arizona: Even missing Koa Peat, the Wildcats proved to be the superior team against Houston. Jaden Bradley stepped up with key plays in crunch time, allowing Arizona to prevail despite limited three-point success. The standout element was a defensive effort that contributed to Houston’s lengthy drought without a field goal in the second half.

4. Houston: The Cougars missed two golden opportunities this week to affirm their status among the national title contenders on this list—if Iowa State were included, I would place Houston behind them. Houston was ahead by double digits against Iowa State but collapsed in the final minutes. likewise, they struggled with their offense for most of the second half against Arizona, hindering their chances of making a compelling argument for a top line on Selection Sunday.