Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Euphoria
HBO Max
Primetime Emmys Predictions Commentary All Categories (Updated: March 26, 2026): The Emmy season is only just getting started.
The early drama race feels like a recalibration year, with a blend of returning heavyweights and ambitious newcomers. Netflix hopes to flex with the third season of “The Diplomat” and the final season of “Stranger Things,” while HBO Max leans into brand identity with the return of “Euphoria” and the surging returning champion, “The Pitt.”
Apple TV+ continues its quiet dominance with the British spy series “Slow Horses” and the intriguing freshman sci-fi drama “Pluribus,” while Hulu’s “The Handmaid’s Tale” spinoff, “The Testaments,” hopes to carry a built-in pedigree. One lingering question is whether voters are in the mood for familiarity or evolution, as this lineup suggests they may have to choose this time around.
Comedy, meanwhile, is having something of an identity crisis (in the best way), especially with last year’s winner, “The Studio,” not returning this cycle.
Once crowned during its third season, the fifth and final season of HBO Max’s “Hacks” is the one to beat, but the field around it could shake the pedestal. ABC’s “Abbott Elementary” and Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building” already feel like familiar comfort zones, while newer risks entering the circuit, like Prime Video’s “Spider-Noir” and Apple TV’s “Margo’s Got Money Troubles,” could bring a tonal and stylistic shift toward genre-blending storytelling. Even revival energy is in play this year with HBO Max’s “The Comeback,” reminding voters how nostalgia can be a powerful tool in the Emmy conversation (especially with Lisa Kudrow at the helm).
The limited or anthology series category may be where the boldest swings are happening, with fewer safety nets due to the limited number of slots. Netflix’s adaptation of “Lord of the Flies” is already emerging as a potential frontrunner. It will have to contend with the return of “Beef,” starring Oscar Isaac and Carey Mulligan, while HBO Max steers titles like “DTF St. Louis,” with Jason Bateman, David Harbour and Linda Cardellini, and “Half Man,” from “Baby Reindeer” star and creator Richard Gadd. FX’s “Love Story” is also coming to an end this week and will undoubtedly be a passion pick for many voters.
The Emmy season officially kicks into gear this week with a steady stream of FYC events signaling the industry’s shift into campaign mode, led by high-profile contenders like Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building” (March 27) and “The Testaments” (March 31), alongside fresh entries such as HBO Max’s “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” and “IT: Welcome to Derry.”
The week blends a range of events and formats, including Netflix’s “Love on the Spectrum” and “Project Runway.” Additional screenings for titles like Apple TV+’s “Stick” and “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” will round out a packed early slate for series looking to make noise.
Projected nomination leaders (series): TBD
Projected nomination leaders (networks): TBD
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
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Drama Series
Image Credit: HBO Max “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
“Euphoria” (HBO Max)
“The Madison” (Paramount+)
“The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***
“Pluribus” (Apple TV)
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
“Stranger Things” (Netflix)
“The Testaments” (Hulu)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Comedy Series
Image Credit: Prime Video “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“The Comeback” (HBO Max)
“Hacks” (HBO Max) ***
“Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat” (Prime Video)
“The Lowdown” (FX)
“Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“Spider-Noir” (Prime Video)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Limited or Anthology Series
Image Credit: Netflix “Beef” (Netflix)
“DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max)
“Half Man” (HBO Max)
“Lord of the Flies” (Netflix) ***
“Love Story” (FX)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Outstanding Movie
Image Credit: Netflix “Deep Cover” (Prime Video)
“Echo Valley” (Apple TV)
“Remarkably Bright Creatures” (Netflix) ***
“People We Meet on Vacation” (Netflix)
“A Winter’s Song” (Prime Video)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Lead Actor (Drama)
Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise” (Hulu)
Jon Hamm, “Your Friends and Neighbors” (Apple TV)
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
Mark Ruffalo, “Task” (HBO Max)
Kurt Russell, “The Madison” (Paramount+)
Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Lead Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: FX Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, “Wonder Man” (Disney+)
Ethan Hawke, “The Lowdown” (FX)
Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Tracy Morgan, “The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins” (NBC)
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) ***
Alexander Skarsgård, “Murderbot” (Apple TV)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Lead Actor (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: Netflix Jason Bateman, “Black Rabbit” (Netflix)
Richard Gadd, “Half Man” (HBO Max)
Charlie Hunnam, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)
Oscar Isaac, “Beef” (Netflix)
Paul Anthony Kelly, “Love Story” (FX) ***
Matthew Rhys, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Lead Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: CBS Kathy Bates, “Matlock” (CBS)
Chase Infiniti, “The Testaments” (Hulu)
Michelle Pfeiffer, “The Madison” (Paramount+)
Keri Russell, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus” (Apple TV) ***
Zendaya, “Euphoria” (HBO Max)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Lead Actress (Comedy)
Kristen Bell, “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Elle Fanning, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback” (HBO Max)
Carrie Preston, “Elsbeth” (CBS)
Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Lead Actress (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: Netflix Claire Danes, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
Carey Mulligan, “Beef” (Netflix)
Sarah Pidgeon, “Love Story” (FX) ***
Sarah Snook, “All Her Fault” (Peacock)
Tessa Thompson, “His and Hers” (Netflix)
Kerry Washington, “Imperfect Women” (Apple TV)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Supporting Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: HBO Max Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje, “Euphoria” (HBO Max)
Jamie Campbell Bower, “Stranger Things” (Netflix)
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV) ***
Colman Domingo, “Euphoria” (HBO Max)
Jacob Elordi, “Euphoria” (HBO Max)
Jack Lowden, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
Tom Pelphrey, “Task” (HBO Max)
Carlos-Manuel Vesga, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Supporting Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: Disney+ Paul W. Downs, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Harrison Ford, “Shrinking” (Apple TV) ***
Ben Kingsley, “Wonder Man” (Disney+)
Nick Offerman, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
Daniel Radcliffe, “The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins” (NBC)
Andrew Scott, “The Comeback” (HBO Max)
Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Supporting Actor (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: HBO Max Jamie Bell, “Half Man” (HBO Max) ***
David Harbour, “DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max)
Richard Jenkins, “DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max)
Rory Kinnear, “Lord of the Flies” (Netflix)
Troy Kotsur, “Black Rabbit” (Netflix)
Charles Melton, “Beef” (Netflix)
Alessandro Nivola, “Love Story” (FX)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Supporting Actress (Drama)
Millie Bobby Brown, “Stranger Things” (Netflix)
Taylor Dearden, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Allison Janney, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Emilia Jones, “Task” (HBO Max)
Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise” (Hulu)
Sydney Sweeney, “Euphoria” (HBO Max)
Karolina Wydra, “Pluribus” (Apple TV) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Supporting Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: NBC Erika Alexander, “The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins” (NBC)
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Robby Hoffman, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) ***
Ashley Padilla, “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Meg Stalter, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Jessica Williams, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Supporting Actress (Limited/Movie)
Image Credit: Netflix Linda Cardellini, “DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max)
Dakota Fanning, “All Her Fault” (Peacock)
Grace Gummer, “Love Story” (FX)
Laurie Metcalf, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)
Cailee Spaeny, “Beef” (Netflix)
Yuh-Jung Youn, “Beef” (Netflix)
Naomi Watts, “Love Story” (FX) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Variety Series
Image Credit: ABC “The Daily Show” (Comedy Central)
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” (ABC) ***
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO Max)
“The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” (CBS)
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Game Show
Image Credit: Dropout “Celebrity Family Feud” (Syndicated)
“Game Changer” (Dropout)
“Jeopardy” (Syndicated) ***
“The Price is Right” (Syndicated)
“Wheel of Fortune” (Syndicated)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Competition Program
Image Credit: CBS “The Amazing Race” (CBS)
“RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
“Survivor” (CBS) ***
“Top Chef” (Bravo)
“The Traitors” (Peacock)Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Source: variety.com
