The NFC and AFC conference championship games are officially lined up.
On January 25, the Broncos will take on the Patriots in the AFC, while the Seahawks will battle the Rams in the NFC.
In preparation for next weekend’s matchups, we consulted our NFL Nation reporters for insights on what they observed about the teams during the divisional round. Seth Walder analyzed the paths for each team to advance, and Matt Bowen selected an early X factor. plus, we included opening lines and game forecasts from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
Jump to a matchup:
NE-DEN | LAR-SEA
AFC
When: 3 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
FPI projection: NE, 60% (by an average of 3.5 points)
Opening line: NE -4.5 (41.5)
What we discovered about the Patriots in the divisional round: Kayshon Boutte appears to be one of the most overlooked wide receivers in the NFL. His spectacular one-handed 32-yard touchdown catch in the fourth quarter on Sunday was a highlight moment that helped eliminate the Texans — against All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. The touchdown marked his fourth receiving TD on a deep fade/go route this season, including playoffs (according to ESPN Analytics and NFL Next Gen Stats), which ties him for second most in the league after the Bengals’ Tee Higgins, who has six. Boutte participated in 55.4% of the offensive plays throughout the regular season, amassing 33 receptions for 551 yards and 6 touchdowns. — Mike Reiss
What we discovered about the Broncos in the divisional round: This further confirms the Broncos’ resilience. Their overtime victory over the Bills marked their 13th comeback win of the season, playoffs included, breaking the NFL regular season record of 12. This season alone, they’ve achieved six wins while trailing in the fourth quarter. They squandered a 23-10 lead, regained it, lost it again in the final seconds of regulation, and ultimately pulled off an escape in overtime thanks to cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian’s interception that halted what could have been Buffalo’s decisive drive. yet, quarterback Bo Nix’s fractured right ankle now presents another hurdle for the Broncos in their pursuit of a fourth Super Bowl title. — Jeff Legwold
Why the Patriots will win: Jarrett Stidham is starting for the Broncos. While there are numerous reasons the Patriots could and should triumph over the Broncos, none is quite as significant as the fact that Denver is starting a backup quarterback. This naturally results in a critical disadvantage in the most vital aspect of football games — the passing offense.
This is not solely attributed to Stidham. In my assessment, the Patriots have the MVP of this regular season. Drake Maye led the league in QBR and completion percentage over expectation according to NFL Next Gen Stats. While the Broncos’ defense will certainly test Maye, he also boasts the highest scramble rate (10.3%) among all quarterbacks. and, Denver’s defense isn’t on par with that of the Texans, whom the Patriots recently defeated.
Maye doesn’t need to be flawless given his matchup. The Broncos will be weakened with Stidham at quarterback, which should play to the advantage of the strongest passing offense in the NFL. New England’s defense may not be elite, but it becomes significantly better with defensive tackle Milton Williams in play and cornerback Christian Gonzalez having shown recent improvements in the postseason. if not circumstances take a turn for the unexpected, the Patriots are poised for a Super Bowl appearance. — Walder
Why the Broncos could win: Following the announcement of Nix’s season-ending injury, we should adjust this prompt to reflect why the Broncos might win. yet, a possibility remains, and it hinges on the ability of their defense to counter the Patriots’ strengths. Denver’s defense will need to perform exceptionally to clinch an AFC Championship Game win and secure a trip to the Super Bowl. And they certainly have that capability.
The Broncos’ secondary features an elite cornerback in Pat Surtain II, a reliable nickel back in McMillian, and a hard-hitting safety in Talanoa Hufanga. plus, their pass rush has an edge over New England’s offensive line. With contributions from players like edge rusher Nik Bonitto and defensive tackle Zach Allen, Denver ranks third in pass rush win rate, granting them leverage against a Patriots offensive line that finished 13th in pass block win rate.
Regarding the Broncos’ primary concern, Stidham will have the protection of what could be the best offensive line in the league. though Stidham is a significant downgrade from Nix, Denver’s overall roster remains strong. This provides the Broncos a chance (though a slim one) to move forward. — Walder
0:58
C.J. Stroud threw four interceptions in the first half against the Patriots.
C.J. Stroud experienced four interceptions in the first half of the Texans vs. the Patriots game.
Early X factor: Hunter Henry, TE, Patriots. The Broncos’ defense permitted an average of 59.7 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season, and we recently witnessed Buffalo’s Dalton Kincaid make six receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown in the divisional round. Henry has the capability to stretch the field while serving as a reliable outlet for quarterback Drake Maye. also, Henry recorded five touchdowns in the red zone this season. — Bowen
Matchup background: The Broncos and Patriots have not faced each other since 2023, when New England triumphed over Denver 26-23 in Russell Wilson’s final game with the team. Denver leads the playoff series 4-1 against the Patriots, including victories in the AFC Championship Games after the 2013 and 2015 seasons. The latter match, which ended in a 20-18 Broncos victory, saw the Patriots fail to execute a game-tying 2-point conversion in the last seconds. — ESPN
Stat to know: Stidham’s last pass attempt came on January 7, 2024, against the Raiders. By the time the AFC Championship Game commences, it will have been 749 days since his last pass attempt, which is more than twice the longest duration between pass attempts for any quarterback starting a playoff game since 1950. The current record for such a gap is held by Joe Webb at 370 days, which occurred when he started in a 2012 wild-card loss for the Vikings. — ESPN Research
NFC
When: 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
FPI projection: SEA, 54% (by an average of 3.5 points)
Opening line: SEA -2.5 (47.5)
What we discovered about the Rams in the divisional round: The Rams have adapted from their early-season defeats in close matches and have found a winning formula. Coach Sean McVay has frequently remarked this season that Los Angeles has become “calloused” due to their past losses, including a Week 16 game in Seattle. In their two playoff wins, they have mounted late comebacks on the road. They will need that experience as they enter a challenging Lumen Field, where they previously squandered a 30-14 lead in the fourth quarter earlier this season. — Sarah Barshop
What we discovered about the Seahawks in the divisional round: The Seahawks may be the most complete team in the playoffs. Their top-rated special teams unit delivered a 95-yard touchdown return by Rashid Shaheed on the opening kickoff in Saturday’s game. Seattle’s scoring defense, ranked first in the league, allowed just two field goals to San Francisco. The run game is also thriving, reaching 175 yards and carrying the load as quarterback Sam Darnold fought through an oblique injury. The Seahawks look poised for a Super Bowl run, even if Darnold has limitations moving forward. Their supporting squad is solid. — Brady Henderson
Why the Rams will win: They hold the advantage at the key position of the game. Sometimes, the most straightforward explanations are the most accurate. Matthew Stafford might be the league’s MVP. Darnold, despite a commendable performance in the divisional round, currently ranks 27th in the NFL in QBR since Week 11. Coincidentally, Week 11 was when he faced the Rams for the first time. The Rams did not buy into the Seahawks’ heavier personnel, opting to play primarily nickel against 12 personnel.
From that moment on, Darnold’s air yards per target and accuracy both declined. The Seahawks have a fearsome defense, yet the Rams’ offense has ranked No. 1 in EPA per play heading into Sunday — even if that hasn’t always been apparent. With Stafford connecting with wide receiver Puka Nacua in the air and a running game boasting the NFL’s best success rate (50%), the Rams’ offense has been phenomenal this season. though their defense has shown inconsistencies, it was still ranked 10th in EPA per play before Sunday. Hence, the Rams’ advantage at quarterback, among other factors, positions them for victory. — Walder
Why the Seahawks will win: Because they are currently the most in-form team in the league. Seattle comes off consecutive games against San Francisco where they restricted the 49ers’ potent offense to just nine total points. While the Seahawks and Rams split their encounters in the regular season, Seattle’s defense appears to be operating at a higher level now than at any previous point this season.
Seattle can effectively counter Los Angeles’ dynamic offense. The Rams ranked highest in success rate for designed runs during the regular season, but the Seahawks topped the charts in defensive success rate against designed runs. plus, if they force the Rams into difficult situations, the Seahawks can pressure the quarterback.
Offensively, Darnold performed admirably on Saturday, easing concerns surrounding his latter regular-season displays. The Seahawks’ running game has also improved. Coupled with the advantage of playing at home and with an additional day of rest, Seattle should be viewed as strong contenders. — Walder
0:17
The Rams progressed to the NFC championship with a walk-off field goal in overtime.
Harrison Mevis nailed a 42-yard field goal for a 20-17 win against the Bears.
Early X factor: Kyren Williams, RB, Rams. While he’ll continue to share the workload with Blake Corum, Williams is expected to receive a consistent number of carries against Seattle. His receiving opportunities have also increased, as evidenced by at least three catches in each of his last four games. The Rams might also leverage Williams as a matchup player on backfield releases. though Seattle had the NFL’s best defense against rushing yards per carry (3.7) this regular season, Williams comes off a performance where he scored two touchdowns and rushed for 117 yards in Chicago. — Bowen
Matchup background: The Seahawks and Rams split their two regular-season games, both of which were closely contested. The Rams won 21-19 at home during Week 11, while the Seahawks claimed a 38-37 overtime thriller in Week 16. They’ve also met twice in the playoffs, with the Rams emerging victorious in both encounters, most recently defeating Seattle in the wild-card round following the 2020 season. — ESPN
Stat to know: The Seahawks have a perfect record of 3-0 at home in conference championship games, and they remain undefeated at 3-0 in NFC Championship Games overall. Their only defeat in a conference championship game occurred in the 1983 AFC Championship Game, where they fell to the Raiders on the road. — ESPN Research
