The NFL’s final four match-ups are finalized, and the betting lines are surprising compared to pre-season expectations and even last weekend’s outlook.
The New England Patriots kicked off as 4.5-point road favorites against the Denver Broncos for the AFC championship, while the Seattle Seahawks opened as 1.5-point home favorites over the Los Angeles Rams for the NFC championship, according to lines from DraftKings. After initial betting, New England climbed to -5.5 and Seattle to -2.5.
In projected hypothetical betting lines, the Broncos were initially 1.5-point favorites over the Patriots, but their odds took a sharp dive after quarterback Bo Nix was ruled out for the rest of the postseason due to a fractured right ankle. Bookmakers indicated that Nix’s absence affects the spread by about five to seven points.
“We’re excited to see how these two defensive teams perform in the AFC championship and to assess the impact Bo Nix had on the Broncos this season,” said Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbooks, to ESPN. “We’re also interested in where the sharp bettors will place their bets on this game.”
Early sharp betting may have played a role in making the Patriots even larger favorites. John Murray, vice president of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, expressed surprise at how significant a favorite New England became [on Sunday].
If the 5.5-point line remains steady, New England would be the largest road favorite in a conference championship game since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970, as reported by ESPN Research.
Denver’s championship chances also took a significant hit due to Nix’s injury. Prior to Saturday, the Broncos were listed at +700 for the Super Bowl, per DraftKings, and after their victory over the Buffalo Bills, that adjusted to +370. After Nix’s injury news broke, their odds shifted to +650, then +950 by the end of Saturday, finally settling at +1100. This marks the longest odds to win the Super Bowl entering a conference championship since the New York Giants were +1500 in January 2008, a year they famously won it all.
The Seahawks currently lead the Super Bowl odds with +145, followed by the Rams at +225 and the Patriots at +255.
All these teams started the season as underdogs: both Denver and Los Angeles were at +2200, while New England and Seattle were at +6000. If either of the former two teams wins, it would represent the longest preseason odds since the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles (+4000), and if either of the latter two take the title, it would be the longest since the 2001 Patriots (+6000).
With many public Super Bowl favorites eliminated, sportsbooks have less to worry about, though there are still a couple of liabilities on the board: BetMGM noted that a Seahawks Super Bowl win would be its least desirable outcome, while DraftKings highlighted a Patriots win as its most significant concern.
ESPN’s David Purdum contributed to this report.
