The NFL divisional round kicked off with a thrilling matchup in Denver on Saturday. The Bills and Broncos fought hard, ending in overtime, but the Broncos clinched it with a 23-yard field goal. Unfortunately, this victory came at a price as quarterback Bo Nix suffered an ankle injury. The second game of the day saw the Seahawks decisively defeat the 49ers.
Sunday started with the Patriots defeating the Texans, with New England making the most of four interceptions thrown by C.J. Stroud. The weekend wrapped up with the Rams pulling off a shocking overtime victory against the Bears.
What key insights and lessons can we draw from each divisional round game, and what lies ahead for these teams? We consulted national NFL reporter Dan Graziano and analyst Ben Solak to analyze each matchup and look forward. Solak will address one pressing question for each game, while Graziano evaluates a potential overreaction.
Let’s dive into discussions surrounding Matthew Stafford’s performance, Caleb Williams’ draft prospects for 2024, Stroud’s play, the Patriots’ defensive prowess, the Seahawks’ impressive roster, the 49ers’ list of injuries, Nix’s injury updates, and the Bills’ playoff challenges.
Jump to:
LAR-CHI | HOU-NE
SF-SEA | BUF-DEN
‘The Bears would be in the NFC Championship Game if they’d drafted Drake Maye instead of Caleb Williams.’ Overreaction?
YES, OVERREACTION! Seriously! Yes, Maye’s team is still in the playoffs while Williams’ is not. And yes, Williams’ overtime interception impacted the Bears’ chance at a game-winning field goal, granting the Rams a chance to clinch the game. Williams’ inconsistency can be frustrating; he had the lowest completion percentage among qualified quarterbacks this season, suggesting his game still requires refinement. But did you see that touchdown throw that sent the game into overtime?
Caleb Williams embodies why we watch sports. This isn’t an exaggeration. yes, some watch for betting, fantasy leagues, or loyalty to a team, but at its core, we watch to be captivated by extraordinary feats of human achievement. Williams captures this essence.
truly, the Rams won the game, but what stands out is that Sean McVay didn’t trust Stafford to make a crucial third-down completion in the final minutes, while Williams executed one of the most astonishing fourth-down passes to tie the game and push it to OT. Williams can accomplish things other players can’t.
Maye is tremendous—a truly talented young player who might win a Super Bowl early in his career. He may even surpass Williams in the long run. but, if you’re a Bears fan, you’re not lamenting passing on Maye right now. After all, Maye has faced his own challenges, including taking 10 sacks and fumbling six times in two playoff games. Williams also has his flaws, and he’ll regret not seizing the opportunity on Sunday night. Still, I want to watch every game Williams plays, because with him on the field, anything seems possible.
Bears fans, knowing anything can happen, have a silver lining. whether or not your season ended, next year promises excitement with such a stellar quarterback prospect. Let’s hope we see Maye and Williams face off in future Super Bowls, leading to endless debates.
For now, I doubt either team regrets their decision. The Bears may have the most electrifying player in the NFL. — Graziano
The lingering question: Why is Stafford struggling — and can the Rams help him rebound?
The positive: The Rams have secured two playoff wins, both on the road, which is no small feat. The downside: They appear to be precariously close to faltering.
Stafford recorded a dropback success rate of just 31.8% in this matchup, his lowest of the season. The previous low was 41.2%. His latest outing against the Panthers placed him among the bottom in success rate as well. On each play, the Rams’ passing attack feels frazzled. Credit their opponents for effective defensive strategies, as the Panthers and Bears did well to compress the intermediate zones and force Stafford to target longer throws. The Bears consistently pressured Stafford, forcing him off-balance and to throw from uncomfortable positions. It’s evident that Stafford’s form is off.
After a strong initial drive indicating promise, he misfired on open throws to flat routes, limiting yards after the catch and leading to incompletions. His deep shots also seemed uncatchable more often than they were competitive. Stafford started the season with back concerns, and it appears age is catching up with him. While all players face aches as the season progresses, the impact on a veteran QB like him is magnified.
It’s hard to believe Stafford will suddenly find his midseason form against a Seahawks defense that’s previously troubled him. even if the Rams possess star power elsewhere (i.e., Nacua, Puka), they’ll need Stafford to consistently perform to have success,especially with tight margins against tough defenses like the Seahawks’ — and it would be similarly challenging if facing the Broncos or Patriots in a potential Super Bowl matchup. Trusting in the Rams’ passing game moving forward feels risky. — Solak
‘The Texans need to hold off on extending C.J. Stroud for at least another year.’ Overreaction?
No, it’s not an overreaction. Stroud played much better in the second half on Sunday, especially given he was missing key players and struggled with a nonexistent run game. but, his catastrophic first half, where he threw four interceptions, put his team in a position they couldn’t recover from, even with a strong defense. This performance came just days after he fumbled five times in a wild-card win against the Steelers.
Rolling into Foxborough on a 10-game win streak, the Texans had a prime opportunity to reach the AFC Championship Game against a weakened Broncos squad missing their starting quarterback. Yet, on a challenging day with wet conditions, the Patriots had turnover issues themselves but were still able to edge out the Texans due to Stroud’s uncharacteristically poor play.
Stroud, the No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft, is eligible for his first contract extension. While I haven’t heard any hints that the Texans plan to delay extending him, should we be completely sure it’s the right decision?
Stroud’s rookie year dazzled, and he’s led the Texans to the playoffs every year he’s been in the league. There’s confidence that he’s their franchise quarterback. but, after throwing 26 touchdowns and just five interceptions as a rookie, he has since thrown a combined 42 touchdowns to 26 interceptions over the last two seasons, including playoffs. The Texans did change offensive coordinators following Stroud’s second season, where he faced immense pressure, but this season hasn’t lived up to his rookie standards, especially given the postseason struggles.
I’m not dismissing Stroud’s talent; he’s still 24 and could bounce back. but, there’s no urgent need to rush into an extension. Stroud’s contract runs through 2026, with an option for 2027 that is likely a no-brainer pickup. They could franchise him if necessary in 2028 and 2029 as well. Why not wait another year and see how he develops and learns from recent challenges?
Teams often rush into these deals (see: Dolphins) and end up regretting it. Hence, I see no reason for urgency in extending Stroud after these performances. — Graziano
The lingering question: Are we accurately assessing this Patriots defense after their two playoff victories?
Look at the numbers: Against the Texans, the Patriots allowed just 3.3 yards per play and created five turnovers. They pressured Stroud on 36% of his dropbacks, during which he completed just 2 of 14 attempts. Running backs for the Texans averaged only 31 yards on 18 carries, mirroring a previous game against the Chargers. In total, the Patriots surrendered only one touchdown in two playoff games, which came following a turnover.
The Patriots’ defense has rejuvenated this postseason, partly due to returning players like Milton Williams and others who missed significant time. Their run defense, in particular, has greatly benefitted from a healthier front seven. but, they’ve faced two teams with subpar offensive lines, which has allowed them to assert control over games. While I’m convinced the Patriots’ defense is solid, it’s difficult to gauge exactly how strong they really are, especially compared to the offenses they have faced as they head into a matchup against a much more formidable offensive line in the Broncos.
As they potentially aim for a Super Bowl, the challenge of evaluating the defense against the quality of offenses faced will continue. even with the Patriots’ success, gauging their true dominance remains a bit of a mystery. — Solak
‘The Seahawks had the best offseason of any team.’ Overreaction?
No, this is not an overreaction. The Seahawks approached the 2025 offseason aiming for a new contract with Geno Smith. When it became clear that Smith wasn’t interested in extending his deal, they traded him and signed Sam Darnold instead. even with opinions on Darnold, the Seahawks finished the 2025 season at 14-3, matching Darnold’s Vikings record, and now secure a home game for the NFC Championship.
GM John Schneider navigated the offseason as though he expected to draft his first-choice quarterback, signing key players and bringing in new talent. Schneider’s drafting philosophy shone through, as he made smart choices while maintaining a strong roster. Their strategy reveals a forward-thinking approach: “Must we pay our QB $50 million annually when he’s yet to prove he’s the franchise player?”
A Seahawks employee shared after their decisive Week 16 win, “We’re aiming for championships here,” and they are clearly on the path to fulfill that goal. With only three losses this season, each by just a few points, and two were against division rivals — one of which they eliminated on Saturday. While Darnold might not be the next Montana, Elway, or Mahomes, the Seahawks decided to build a championship-quality roster around a skilled quarterback rather than overspending on an unproven backup.
Kudos to the Seahawks for treating the quarterback segment of their roster with the same seriousness as they do with every other position. Even without their preferred choice, they found a way to succeed with Darnold, thanks to their overall team strength. Though hiring Mike Macdonald as head coach occurred last offseason, it greatly influenced their strategy this year. And now, they stand triumphantly in contention. — Graziano
The lingering question: Will the 49ers emerge as NFC favorites next season if healthy?
It’s early to make predictions, but consider this: The Seahawks will likely hold the advantage unless unforeseen events occur. The Rams might also contend if they perform well in the playoffs, but Stafford’s longevity will always cast a shadow over their future. Meanwhile, the 49ers retain most of their key players.
While Trent Williams’ contract is up and the offensive line needs addressing, the core of their young defense, unseen this season due to injuries, promises potential. Players like Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, alongside others, will return, boosting their performance, especially post-season experience.
but, they might lose defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, who has been pivotal in managing their adversity this season. Saleh has already interviewed for jobs with other teams, making his retention uncertain.
importantly, the 49ers, who faced a relatively weak schedule this season, are set to play a third-place schedule next year, despite their playoff run. With minor adjustments and potentially improved luck with injuries, they should be poised for another strong playoff appearance in the NFC. — Solak
‘The Broncos’ chances are sunk without Bo Nix.’ Overreaction?
No, this is not an overreaction. The Broncos barely escaped with a win on Saturday. Buffalo’s five turnovers, including one in overtime, allowed Nix to play a critical role in their comeback. Without Nix’s clutch performance in critical moments, it’s hard to believe that Denver could outpace Houston or New England with Stidham behind center, let alone win a Super Bowl.
Though the Broncos possess a solid defense, they struggled against a Bills offense that moved the ball effectively despite turnovers. They haven’t shown elite performance like defenses from Seattle or Houston. Denver’s run game is commendable, but with Stidham, they lack the clutch capabilities that Nix brought.
The Broncos will need their defense to perform exceptionally well next week— even against Houston’s inconsistent offense—to have any shot at the Super Bowl. whether or not they make it through, they’ll be up against a team that has enjoyed rest and likely has its starter under center.
It’s unfortunate that we can’t see the full potential of Sean Payton and this Broncos squad. Payton’s opportunity to win a Super Bowl with two different teams was exciting, but with Nix’s injury, that dream seems increasingly distant. — Graziano
The lingering question: Why do the Bills keep faltering in the postseason?
I’m at a loss. What can be said? The Bills’ five turnovers clearly hurt them; no team that gives up the football that often deserves to win. Allen’s fumble before halftime and another turnover that gave Denver a larger advantage were pivotal mistakes. He also threw a crucial interception after a defensive turnover.
While Allen’s errors created significant challenges, he also led the charge to keep them competitive. Unfortunately, he missed key opportunities, including a red-zone pass to Khalil Shakir and a critical chance for a walk-off to Dawson Knox at the end of regulation. Allen was both a reason for their survival and a reason for their defeat.
Having now reached seven consecutive postseasons under Allen, the Bills have endured seven postseason losses. While various issues have cropped up—like receiver talent and defensive depth—the consistent factor remains the triumvirate of McDermott, Beane, and Allen. Over nearly a decade, they’ve struggled to push beyond the playoffs, despite multiple strong seasons. so, whether changes are made or not, one can understand the rationale behind both. It’s been a heart-wrenching sequence of narrow defeats. — Solak
