The league stage of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League has delivered numerous exciting moments and stunning goals, but the knockout rounds are just around the corner. We are only days away from discovering which 24 teams will embark on their quest for European glory.
Before that, the final matchweek of the league stage must be completed, with stakes at an all-time high for some of the continent’s leading clubs. Liverpool, Barcelona, Tottenham Hotspur, and defending champions Paris Saint-Germain are all vying for top-eight positions, ensuring their direct advancement to the round of 16. Manchester City is also in the mix, unexpectedly suffering a 3-1 defeat to Bodo/Glimt on Tuesday.
The matches are set for Jan. 28 at 3 p.m. ET, promising two hours of sheer chaos. Every goal scored could be pivotal in deciding which teams progress and which see their European ambitions dashed.
To recap, teams finishing in the top eight will circumvent the knockout playoff round. Teams finishing ninth through 24th will face off in that round in February, while those in 25th to 36th will be eliminated. Like last year, no teams will drop to the Europa League from the Champions League.
Which teams still have a chance at the knockout rounds? What’s on the line for each club? Here’s everything you need to know ahead of the final matchweek of the league stage.
Who is already through to the knockout rounds?
Round of 16 (2):
Arsenal are confirmed to finish in first or second place, securing a top seeding position in the bracket.
Bayern Munich secured their round-of-16 ticket with a 2-0 win over Union Saint-Gilloise on Wednesday.
Guaranteed at least a place in the knockout playoff round (13):
Real Madrid, Liverpool, Tottenham, PSG, Newcastle, Chelsea, Barcelona, Sporting CP, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, Atalanta, Inter, Juventus
Will make knockout rounds or be eliminated (17):
Borussia Dortmund, Galatasaray, Qarabag, Marseille, Bayer Leverkusen, AS Monaco, PSV Eindhoven, Athletic Club, Olympiacos, Napoli, F.C. København, Club Brugge, Bodo/Glimt, Benfica, Pafos, Union Saint-Gilloise, Ajax
Out (4):
Eintracht Frankfurt, Slavia Prague, Villarreal, Kairat Almaty
The battle to go through: How teams can qualify
We’re in for an exhilarating final matchweek, as both top-eight and top-24 races will come down to the wire. At the summit, only Arsenal and Bayern can feel completely secure in their standings, while 32 out of 36 teams still have a shot at the knockout rounds.
(Each team listed below includes its opponent for the final matchweek on Jan. 28.)
1. Arsenal (21 points, plus-18 goal difference)
Kairat Almaty (Home)
The Gunners have secured their place and are guaranteed a top-two finish, allowing them to play the second leg of each knockout tie at home until the final.
2. Bayern Munich (18, plus-13)
PSV Eindhoven (Away)
Bayern have secured their spot in the round of 16 and will affirm a top-two finish with a draw or win against PSV, ensuring they avoid Arsenal until the final, should both teams reach that stage.
3. Real Madrid (15, plus-11)
Benfica (A)
4. Liverpool (15, plus-6)
Qarabag (H)
Both powerhouses find themselves in similar situations — a win in the final matchweek will guarantee their places in the round of 16. but, while a draw against Benfica should send Real Madrid through, Liverpool’s meager goal differential places them in a slightly riskier position if they fail to secure all three points at Anfield against Qarabag.
5. Tottenham Hotspur (14, plus-8)
Eintracht Frankfurt (A)
although struggles in the Premier League, Spurs are well-positioned in Europe. A win against Frankfurt guarantees a round-of-16 spot, while a draw could suffice with assistance from elsewhere.
6. Paris Saint-Germain (13, plus-10)
Newcastle (H)
7. Newcastle United (13, plus-10)
Paris Saint-Germain (A)
8. Chelsea (13, plus-6)
Napoli (A)
9. Barcelona (13, plus-5)
FC København (H)
10. Sporting CP (13, plus-5)
Athletic Club (A)
11. Manchester City (13, plus-4)
Galatasaray (H)
12. Atletico Madrid (13, plus-3)
Bodo/Glimt (H)
13. Atalanta (13, plus-1)
Union Saint-Gilloise (A)
This is where things become intriguing. Six automatic spots for the round of 16 remain open, with these clubs firmly in contention. If Real Madrid, Liverpool, and/or Spurs drop points, it would significantly bolster the chances of these teams to earn a top-eight finish.
Goal differential could play a critical role in determining the qualifiers, with secondary tiebreakers likely coming into play. The next tiebreakers, for reference, are goals scored and away goals scored. (Scroll down for the complete tiebreaker list.)
The matchup between PSG and Newcastle is particularly significant. Both teams could advance with a draw, but neither would feel assured, and their solid goal differentials suggest a win is crucial for progression.
One thing is certain: Regardless of other outcomes, whichever of the three teams in this tier wins their final match and finishes with the highest points and best goal differential will secure advancement to the round of 16.
1:25
Can Barcelona manage without Pedri if his injury is long-term?
The ESPN ‘FC TV’ crew offers their insights on Pedri’s injury during Barcelona’s 4-2 triumph over Slavia Prague in the UEFA Champions League.
14. Internazionale (12, plus-6)
Borussia Dortmund (H)
15. Juventus (12, plus-4)
Benfica (H)
This duo of Italian teams has an outside chance of reaching the round of 16. They will likely need to win their final match. That would catapult them to 15 points, relying on (for instance) six of the eight clubs currently at 13 points to draw or lose their final matches.
Inter’s relatively strong goal differential of plus-6 — equal to or superior to the differential of seven of the 13 clubs above them — positions them well for any potential tiebreakers.
At the very least, these clubs can take solace in having made it through the league stage.
16. Borussia Dortmund (11, plus-4)
Internazionale (A)
17. Galatasaray (10, even)
Man City (A)
18. Qarabag (10, minus-2)
Liverpool (A)
These teams remain technically in the hunt for the round of 16, but their focus — especially for Galatasaray and Qarabag — will likely revolve around those below them. Dortmund must either win or draw to guarantee advancement, while Galatasaray and Qarabag must achieve wins against formidable opposition. A cascade of unfortunate results could see them miss the knockouts, but a severe loss would likely have them anxiously monitoring scores as full time approaches.
19. Marseille (9, even)
Club Brugge (A)
20. Bayer Leverkusen (9, minus-4)
Villarreal (H)
21. AS Monaco (9, minus-6)
Juventus (H)
For these three clubs, the path is straightforward: win your final match to advance to the knockout rounds. While a draw may still suffice, it would leave the six clubs directly below them with hope.
A loss could be catastrophic, particularly for Monaco. Five of the six clubs beneath them with seven or eight points boast better goal differentials.
22. PSV Eindhoven (8, plus-1)
Bayern Munich (H)
23. Athletic Club (8, minus-4)
Sporting CP (H)
24. Olympiacos (8, minus-5)
Ajax (A)
25. Napoli (8, minus-5)
Chelsea (H)
26. FC København (8, minus-6)
Barcelona (A)
27. Club Brugge (7, minus-5)
Marseille (H)
The crux of the top-24 race lies in the second tiebreaker (goals scored), which currently separates Olympiacos and Napoli on that dividing line.
The matchups play a significant role in determining the outlook for these teams. For instance, Olympiacos is likely pleased to face Ajax (currently 32nd in the table). Meanwhile, PSV, Napoli, and København have daunting challenges ahead if they wish to clinch a place, taking on some of Europe’s heavyweight teams.
Securing wins in their final matches would greatly enhance their chances, though outcomes elsewhere remain unpredictable.
28. Bodo/Glimt (6, minus-2)
Atletico Madrid (A)
29. Benfica (6, minus-4)
Real Madrid (H)
30. Pafos (6, minus-6)
Slavia Prague (H)
31. Union Saint-Gilloise (6, minus-10)
Atalanta (H)
32. Ajax (6, minus-12)
Olympiacos (A)
These teams on the outside looking in face a win-or-go-home scenario. Anything less, and their European campaigns will conclude.
33. Eintracht Frankfurt (4, minus-9)
Tottenham Hotspur (H)
34. Slavia Prague (3, minus-11)
Pafos (A)
35. Villarreal (1, minus-10)
Bayer Leverkusen (A)
36. Kairat Almaty (1, minus-14)
Arsenal (A)
The bottom four clubs have been eliminated.
What are the league phase tiebreakers?
1 – Goal difference
2 – Goals scored
3 – Away goals scored
4 – Wins
5 – Away wins
6 – Higher total points collected by league phase opponents
7 – Higher goal difference among league phase opponents
8 – Higher goals scored by league phase opponents
9 – Disciplinary points
10 – UEFA club coefficient
Does it matter where you finish in the table?
It can be significant, as league-phase placements shape the knockout round bracket.
The “seeding” system introduced for the 2024-25 season ensures that the highest-placed teams will not encounter each other until later rounds of the knockout stage.
Last season illustrated the notable impact of this new system. Manchester City clinched their knockout spot on the final day of the league phase, but their 22nd-place finish meant they faced a tough battle in the knockout round playoffs, cross paths with Real Madrid, who triumphed 6-3 over two legs. By contrast, PSG seemed unaffected by the additional matches, smoothly progressing past Brest in the playoffs to secure the title.
The graphic below illustrates how the final standings influence the bracket.
When is the draw for the knockout round playoffs?
The draw for the knockout round playoffs — including clubs finishing ninth to 24th — is scheduled for Jan. 30 at 6 a.m. ET.
