With Cody Bellinger, Bo Bichette, and Kyle Tucker recently signing, MLB free agency is nearing its conclusion. yet, significant transactions are still expected in the upcoming weeks before spring training kicks off.
Where might the most captivating free agents end up? Will we witness a major trade? And what will happen with Tarik Skubal’s arbitration case against the Detroit Tigers?
We reached out to our MLB analysts for one audacious forecast about the remainder of the offseason.
The Skubal situation
Tarik Skubal will successfully argue his arbitration case
Arbitration hearings are infamous for their unpredictability. Lawyers often leave feeling they’ve made compelling cases, only to be surprised by the outcome. Conversely, those fearing defeat sometimes walk away victorious. so, regardless of how Tarik Skubal’s team presents their case for the $32 million he’s requesting against the $19 million proposed by the Tigers, the result remains uncertain.
Why is he likely to win? Simply put: despite the comparables favor Detroit and a $32 million award would surpass the previous high by over $12 million, Skubal is the first American Leaguer to achieve consecutive Cy Young Awards since Pedro Martinez in 1999-2000. In a context where lesser pitchers command $30 million-plus per season, Skubal’s outstanding performance as arguably the best pitcher in baseball should persuade the panel. — Jeff Passan
Teams primed for significant moves
The Baltimore Orioles — yes, the Orioles — are poised to dominate free agency
Baltimore has already allocated $195 million to four free agents — Pete Alonso, Ryan Helsley, Zach Eflin, and Leody Taveras — positioning them sixth in overall spending. General manager Mike Elias, in the last year of his contract, has one more surprise up his sleeve: Framber Valdez.
With Ranger Suárez securing a $130 million deal over five years in Boston, Valdez is expected to sign for around six years and $180 million. Such a contract would elevate the Orioles above the Dodgers and Blue Jays as baseball’s largest free-agent spenders. — Paul Hembekides
The Red Sox will acquire at least one more hitter — they really must, right?
It would be surprising not to, wouldn’t it? The Red Sox invested significantly this offseason to bolster their pitching, from trading Sonny Gray to signing Ranger Suarez for $130 million. yet, they’ve largely stood pat with their everyday lineup, having added Willson Contreras before being caught off guard by the Cubs’ acquisition of Alex Bregman.
Following Roman Anthony’s injury at the end of 2025, the Red Sox appear to be two bats short — their matchup with the Yankees resembled a lightweight boxer up against a heavyweight — and if their lineup doesn’t see improvements, they will heavily rely on Anthony and Contreras in a division featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Aaron Judge, Junior Caminero, Pete Alonso, and Gunnar Henderson. — Buster Olney
A.J. Preller and the San Diego Padres are set for a major move
Since the winter meetings, one recurring topic in discussions with agents and executives has been Preller, the Padres’ dynamic general manager, who is actively engaged in conversations about free agents and trades, though nothing substantial has yet materialized.
The Padres have retained Michael King, but their rotation requires further reinforcement. They’ve signed Korean infielder Sung-Mun Song, yet they still need one or two additional bats.
Eventually, a significant transaction is on the horizon. The specifics remain unclear, but with the Padres’ championship window narrowing each year, Preller won’t let the Dodgers dominate the division and distance themselves from the rest of the National League. Regardless of financial limitations or a depleted system, he will seek ways to acquire impactful talent, as it’s his inclination and, at times, his obsession. — Alden Gonzalez
Upcoming trades
The New York Yankees will trade Jasson Dominguez before spring training begins.
Bellinger re-signing with New York was a positive development for nearly everyone in the organization, except for Dominguez. Previously seen as a likely starter in left field, that position now belongs to Bellinger, pushing Dominguez out of a daily role.
Dominguez, a switch-hitter, brings speed and left-handed hitting potential against righties, making him a valuable bench asset. With his 23rd birthday in February, he’s still young. yet, he struggles defensively — the Yankees don’t view him as a viable big league center fielder, and he had significant challenges in left field last season. The Yankees might leverage him in a trade to strengthen an area of need, possibly for pitching or a right-handed-hitting catcher or outfielder.
This talented player could soon find a new home. — Jorge Castillo
Brendan Donovan is expected to be traded to the San Francisco Giants
The Giants need a second baseman, while the Cardinals are open to moving any hitter approaching 30. It’s a well-suited match, albeit less thrilling than the historic Hornsby-Frisch trade.
The Giants are a suitable team to offset Donovan’s career platoon struggles against lefties. Combining his .812 OPS against righties with Tyler Fitzgerald’s .841 OPS against left-handers creates a formidable pairing. The Cardinals can transition the position to Thomas Saggese and clear the way for JJ Wetherholt’s arrival. — Bradford Doolittle
The New York Mets are set to trade Brett Baty to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Jurrangelo Cijntje and Matt Brash
With Bichette’s signing, Baty has effectively been displaced at third base for the Mets. While he could potentially move to first base or DH, the Mets have Jorge Polanco and Mark Vientos available for those spots. Instead, expect David Stearns to utilize Baty to rejuvenate the farm system after previous trades for Freddy Peralta and Luis Robert Jr. Cijntje, a hard-throwing switch-pitcher drafted by the Mariners in 2024, is a young arm who needs development but has potential. Brash would offer additional bullpen support.
The Mariners have been linked to Donovan in trade discussions, but Baty aligns better, considering light-hitting Ben Williamson is currently projected to start at third base. Baty, who is still pre-arbitration, perfectly fits the budget and brings four years of team control after a 3.1-WAR season with improved defense. He allows top prospect Colt Emerson to gain more experience in the minors before replacing J.P. Crawford at shortstop in 2027. Even after trading Cijntje, the Mariners would retain two top-100 pitching prospects, Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan. — David Schoenfield
Nick Castellanos will be traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates… with the Philadelphia Phillies covering most of the contract
The Pirates still require additional hitting, and Castellanos is in search of a new team. An in-state trade could work, with the financially flexible Phillies potentially covering around $15 million of the $20 million owed to Castellanos for 2026. The Pirates may not even need to return a player in the deal; they could simply absorb the salary and let Castellanos shine at PNC Park, proving naysayers wrong. — Jesse Rogers
Major signings on the horizon
Justin Verlander is returning to the Detroit Tigers
Verlander, selected second overall in the 2004 MLB draft by Detroit, recorded 183 wins over 13 seasons with the Tigers. Last year, while with the Giants, he secured four victories, and his 1.2 WAR isn’t as dismal when contextualized. Only four Tigers pitchers earned more WAR than him (Skubal, Reese Olson, Will Vest, Casey Mize).
The Tigers would surely find a place in their rotation for this future Hall of Famer, who not only provides veteran leadership to a team aiming for its third consecutive playoff appearance but also deserves consideration based on his on-field contributions. — Eric Karabell
The Pittsburgh Pirates will sign 3B Eugenio Suarez.
I’m already supportive of a Pirates-led run in the National League Central this year. What better way for them to bolster their ambitions than by addressing their severe power deficiency with one of the best remaining power hitters on the free-agent market? Suarez may be inclined to take a shorter contract with a higher average annual value or a post-2026 opt-out — perhaps two years for $42 million — and he would add balance to a lefty-heavy Pirates lineup with a thinner left side of the infield. — Tristan Cockcroft
