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Seth Walder
Multiple Authors
Welcome to the future of Super Bowl props — quite literally. When the NFL introduced chips in every player’s shoulder pads nearly a decade ago, it’s likely they never envisioned betting on the player-tracking data being accumulated … but here we are.
In my opinion, this represents an excellent opportunity to identify betting value. After all, who can accurately predict how often a player reaches 19 mph as a ball carrier? Let’s aim to be that person.
For the Super Bowl, I’ve dedicated the past week to researching these props and developing models to forecast these Next Gen Stats-based categories. Let’s dive in and hopefully uncover some winning bets.
Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
and subject to change.
Stefon Diggs fastest ball carry speed UNDER 18.5 mph (-160)
This is my top Super Bowl bet, without a doubt. When my model indicated an 88% probability that Diggs would go under this figure, I initially thought I must have made an error. To confirm, I checked how many times Diggs exceeded this threshold this season. The verdict? Once. He reached 18.7 mph in Week 16. That’s it!
Ball carrier maximum speed isn’t simply a reflection of how fast a player would run on a track. It’s influenced by the scenario in which the player is carrying the ball. A straight sprint to the end zone? That’s when players can hit 21 or even 22 mph. But Diggs isn’t that type of player. He doesn’t typically sprint downfield on a go route, catching a pass past the last defender and heading for the end zone.
Kayshon Boutte to record the most air yards on a single reception (+500)
Describing Boutte as a downfield player barely scratches the surface of how extensive his route tree is. Among wide receivers who have run at least 300 routes this season, including playoffs, Boutte recorded the highest percentage of deep fades or go routes (30%). This puts him well ahead of Quentin Johnston, who was second at 23%, and more than double the average (12%). While Boutte may not catch every pass, when he does, they’re typically downfield. I estimate the fair price here to be +379.
Boutte fastest ball carry speed UNDER 18.5 mph (-105)
Hold on a second. Didn’t we just establish that Boutte is a downfield receiver and therefore likely to hit a high top speed?
That’s correct, but two factors suggest we should still take the under:
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Boutte doesn’t often get ample opportunities; he needs the ball in his hands to achieve a qualifying fastest speed for this category. His receptions prop heading into this Super Bowl is set at 2.5 — leaning toward the under — which is a consideration in the model.
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We’re not betting on an outlier here. The air yards prop above focuses on extreme outcomes, while this one measures Boutte’s median outcome. although his speed potential, Boutte’s median top speed is surprisingly low.
Mack Hollins fastest ball carry speed UNDER 19.5 mph (-180)
The rationale for Hollins mirrors that of Boutte, with the exception that Hollins isn’t the same caliber of vertical threat.
Rhamondre Stevenson fastest ball carry speed OVER 16.5 mph (-125)
At last, an over! Though Stevenson isn’t typically recognized for his breakaway speed, he does offer significant (projected) opportunity. His rushing attempts line is set at 14.5, alongside a receptions prop line of 3.5. He simply needs to excel on one of those plays for us to secure a win here.
This season, Stevenson has exceeded this line in 12 of 17 games, even when he wasn’t consistently given such a heavy (anticipated) workload.
George Holani to record the most YAC on a single reception (25-1)
This category includes wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs as potential winners, unlike the highest air yards prop. While no single player is overwhelmingly likely to win — I place Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the favorite at just a 14.5% chance — Holani offers value at this price. With Zach Charbonnet sidelined, Holani will see some action. Last week, he ran routes on 35% of the Seahawks’ dropbacks and made three receptions. That’s sufficient to give him a reasonable chance in this category.
