Breaking down Pats-Broncos, Rams-Seahawks via Next Gen Stats

Many consider conference championship Sunday to be the pinnacle of NFL action, showcasing two potentially thrilling games with a greater emphasis on the sport over the Super Bowl spectacle.

One of the most captivating narratives this Sunday is Denver Broncos quarterback Jarrett Stidham, stepping in for the injured Bo Nix. This marks Stidham’s first start since 2023 and his fifth since being drafted in 2019.

but, Stidham’s track record includes some encouraging metrics. He recorded an expected points added (EPA) per dropback of +0.04 and a success rate of 46.1% over the past four years (with 149 total pass attempts), as reported by Next Gen Stats. Both statistics exceed the league averages of -0.03 EPA/DB and 44.2% success rate during that time. especially, Stidham’s cumulative success rate of 46.1% over the last four years outperformed Nix’s current season figure of 44.5%.

but, Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford had a mere success rate of 30.4% during the divisional overtime win against the Chicago Bears, ranking as the ninth-lowest among 238 playoff starting quarterbacks in the past decade. Stafford was the only quarterback in the bottom 15 who managed to win.

Here’s a closer examination of the two conference championship games through the lens of Next Gen Stats.

Can the Broncos take advantage of Patriots left tackle Will Campbell?

In two playoff matches against the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans, Campbell allowed 10 pressures, including four sacks, during 73 pass-blocking snaps (13.7%). This is the highest number of pressures and sacks allowed by the Patriots.

but, expect offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to provide assistance. The Patriots directed chip block help to both Campbell and right tackle Morgan Moses. Campbell received chip help on 13.3% of his pass sets, the eighth-highest rate among left tackles, while Moses received chip assistance on 15% of his pass sets, ranking sixth among right tackles (with a minimum of 200 pass blocks).

In the Broncos’ victory over the Bills, their pass rush disrupted quarterback Josh Allen on 32% of his dropbacks. Throughout the regular season, the Broncos led the league in sacks (68). One of their favored strategies involved deploying at least five pass rushers, which they executed 33.7% of the time, yielding a 50% pressure rate and finishing with 29 sacks—second most in the league.

Drake Maye recorded +62.8 EPA on passes over 20 air yards in the regular season, the most in the NFL.

The Broncos defense allowed the lowest deep completion percentage (20.3%) and restricted Josh Allen to 0/9 with two interceptions last week.#NEvsDEN | #NEPats | #BroncosCountry pic.twitter.com/qANySIIFmf

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 23, 2026

but, blitzing Patriots quarterback Drake Maye may backfire. When facing the blitz this season, Maye accumulated 1,491 passing yards (second), 15 touchdowns (tied for third), a passer rating of 129.2 (first), and an EPA dropback of 0.28 (third).

Against the Texans, Maye achieved a passer rating of 103 with one touchdown amidst the blitz. The Texans blitzed rarely (only 18% of his dropbacks), but when they did, Maye capitalized.

besides, when under pressure, Maye averaged a league-best 8.8 yards per attempt, tying with Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert for the most touchdown passes at 10. His effectiveness under pressure is largely due to his tendency to push the ball downfield, which can also result in errors.

Throughout two playoff games, Maye has been strip-sacked five times and lost two fumbles. During the Broncos’ divisional round win over the Bills, outside linebacker Nik Bonitto registered a strip sack that was recovered by defensive tackle Malcolm Roach.

hence, monitoring Maye’s ball security is crucial.

From a secondary angle, Patriots All-Pro cornerback Christian Gonzalez faced 16 targets in the divisional round, allowing just seven receptions for 58 yards. Overall, in his two playoff outings, he has permitted a completion percentage of 33.3% along with three pass breakups.

On the other side, Broncos veteran cornerback Pat Surtain II has primarily played as the boundary corner in the last three games, taking on 118 snaps. Surtain has played 321 snaps as the boundary corner and 238 snaps as the field corner throughout the season.

Drake Maye completed 16 of 27 passes for 179 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception in the Patriots’ Divisional Round victory over the Texans.

Maye excelled particularly against man coverage, completing 8 of 12 for 106 yards and all three touchdowns.#HOUvsNE | #NEPats pic.twitter.com/FgORaKmhfS

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 18, 2026

Why is this important? Surtain was targeted on only 11.4% of his snaps as a boundary corner, the second-lowest rate among 64 cornerbacks with at least 100 boundary snaps. He permitted just 0.6 yards per coverage snap (fifth-fewest).

Regarding Maye’s deep passing versus the Broncos’ deep pass defense, it will be a contest of strengths.

Maye’s 52.1% deep ball completion rate was the second-highest this season, whereas the Broncos’ allowed a deep completion percentage of only 20.4%, the lowest in the league. Denver did not allow a single completion on Allen’s nine deep passes during the divisional round, intercepting two of the attempts.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks, 6:30 p.m. ET, Fox

This encounter showcases superstar receivers Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the Rams’ Puka Nacua, while Davante Adams, although not quite the All-Pro he once was, remains a significant threat.

Nacua recorded a league-high average of 3.8 yards per route this season, while Smith-Njigba held an average of 3.7 yards per route. Both were at least 1.2 yards per route ahead of the next nearest player, Baltimore Ravens’ Zay Flowers (2.5).

Matthew Stafford threw 28 passing touchdowns from under center this season, more than double the count of any other quarterback except his NFC Championship rival Sam Darnold (18).

Darnold topped the NFL with 44 downfield completions from under center.#LARvsSEA | #RamsHouse | #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/WnlqQqG1pg

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 21, 2026

The Rams need to keep a close eye on Nacua in motion. He amassed a league-high 473 receiving yards on plays after going in motion, the most by any player in a season since at least 2018. This also marks the second consecutive season for him with 400 or more such yards.

Smith-Njigba topped the NFL with 956 receiving yards when positioned in the slot last season, subsequently leading the league with 1,378 receiving yards when aligned outside this season. He is the first player in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016) to dominate in receiving yards from the slot in one season and from the outside in another.

Smith-Njigba can harm defenses from anywhere, though he primarily aligned outside for 81.4% of his snaps this season. His performance led him to achieve an impressive league-high of 44 explosive receptions (15-plus yards), the most by any receiver in the past two seasons.

Both he and Nacua are capable of running any route effectively. Smith-Njigba secured 100 or more receiving yards on eight different route types this season. The only other wide receiver to achieve this feat? You guessed it, Nacua.

Smith-Njigba ranked among the top five for five different routes, especially excelling with go routes where he racked up 279 yards—the highest for any route. Nacua led in receiving yards on post routes (278 yards) and in-routes (253). Both receivers showed prowess in running in-breaking routes, with Smith-Njigba collecting 828 yards and only three yards behind Nacua’s league-leading total of 831.

One advantage for the Seahawks lies in quarterback Sam Darnold’s efficiency with play-action, which also happens to be a weakness for the Rams.

The Rams experienced difficulties defending play-action, particularly utilizing base personnel. During these scenarios, they allowed a 78.0% completion rate and 10.9 yards per attempt—the second-highest figures in the NFL.

Conversely, their results improved with a nickel grouping in play-action defense, allowing a 64.2% completion rate and 6.7 yards per attempt, both better than league averages of 66.8% and 7.9.

In play-action situations, Darnold is tied for the highest EPA per dropback (.41) among starters, and his total EPA is 58.8, the top figure.

The Seahawks employ dime packages to feature Devon Witherspoon, Riq Woolen, and Josh Jobe on the field together.

Each has permitted under one yard per coverage snap, ranking them among the top five cornerbacks in the NFL in this statistic.@Seahawks pic.twitter.com/Cmoo740mzL

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 22, 2026

On the defensive front, the Seahawks’ pass rush achieved the fourth-highest pressure rate (38.9%), while the Rams’ offensive line allowed the second-lowest pressure rate this season (27.3%), despite facing the sixth-highest blitz rate (32.9%).

Meanwhile, the Rams generated the fifth-highest pressure rate (38.0%) and the Seahawks’ offensive line allowed the fifth-lowest pressure rate this season (29.2%).

In terms of interior pressure, Sunday will showcase the top four defensive tackle pairs in total pressures produced: