-
Matt Bowen
Multiple Authors
Betting on the Super Bowl can be tricky, even for those who closely follow the league. I understand the challenge. Analyzing player rosters, offensive strategies, and the various schemes that can influence outcomes requires significant effort, and it all has importance.
Yet, we can simplify our approach by concentrating solely on the quarterbacks in this showdown. New England Patriots QB Drake Maye is a strong MVP contender, as is Sam Darnold of the Seattle Seahawks. Both are former first-round picks; one excels in just his second season, while the other is a veteran showcasing some of his best performances with his fifth team in eight years.
Let’s delve into the quarterbacks, examining their skills and the offensive systems they operate within, and identify our top betting picks for both in Super Bowl LX.
Note: Super Bowl odds from DraftKings Sportsbook
are subject to change.
Drake Maye
An accurate passer with exceptional placement, Maye led the league with a 72.0% completion rate during the regular season under Josh McDaniels. His offensive scheme creates opportunities in the middle of the field, while catch-and-run options allow him to maintain rhythm, along with his impressive pocket mobility to adjust his throwing angles under pressure. With his dual-threat abilities, Maye adds value through designed runs and creates challenges for defenses during scrambles, totaling 450 rushing yards this season and another 141 in the playoffs.
Top Bets for Maye
OVER 19.5 completions (-108)
The Seahawks typically employ a Cover 2 defense, using it on a league-high 33.1% of opponent dropbacks. This coverage restricts deep routes but allows quarterbacks to capitalize on available underneath options. Maye averaged 20.8 completions this season, and he may need to increase his passing volume if New England falls behind in the second half.
OVER 39.5 rushing yards (-114)
In the AFC Championship Game against Denver, Maye rushed for 65 yards and has surpassed the 40-yard mark in three of his last four games. He demonstrates excellent vision as a ball carrier when he escapes the pocket, and I believe he’ll have to make crucial plays as a runner to succeed against this Seattle defense.
Anytime TD (+320)
This bet is worth considering, especially with the value at +320. Maye scored four rushing touchdowns in the regular season and had another in the AFC title game on a designed QB draw. McDaniels can set up plays for his quarterback in the red zone. (Maye ranks 12th on Mike Clay’s list of most likely players to score. Read the full story here.)
Sam Darnold
Darnold fits seamlessly into coordinator Klint Kubiak’s system, which balances the run and pass game through wide zone plays. This structure allows Darnold to execute at a higher rate, making defined reads to exploit openings on deeper levels, with a top target in wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. also, his mobility enables him to stretch plays on bootlegs, and Kubiak will look to position him for deep shots as well.
Darnold recorded a 67.7% completion percentage in the regular season (ranked sixth in the league) and surpassed 4,000 yards passing. though he sometimes makes questionable decisions under pressure, Kubiak can help him maintain rhythm against New England.
Top Bets for Darnold
Longest completion OVER 35.5 yards (-115)
Darnold achieved two completions of over 40 yards during the NFC Championship Game and 17 this season of at least 36 yards (including playoffs). As mentioned, Kubiak will design plays to take those deep shots. Look for opportunities to target Smith-Njigba and Rashid Shaheed here.
OVER 2.5 rushing attempts (+106)
Darnold registered just 35 rushing attempts throughout the regular season (averaging 2.1 per game). yet, can we expect one scramble from Darnold, plus a couple of kneel-downs at the end of a half or game? Don’t forget that those kneel-downs count as rushing attempts. I’m backing Seattle for the win. Let’s take this bet.
OVER 1.5 touchdown passes (-122)
Darnold threw multiple touchdown passes in eight regular-season games, and he had three against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game. I like this bet due to Kubiak’s strategic scripting for concepts in the high red zone, plus Smith-Njigba’s ability to create separation when facing man coverage from the Patriots.
One more bonus wager …
Maye/Darnold combined 450+ passing yards (-119)
While we are looking at two solid defenses in this matchup, this figure seems low, so let’s jump on it now before it potentially rises closer to game day. This season, Maye achieved an average of 258.5 passing yards per game, while Darnold averaged 238.1.
