Chalamet Upset, Penn and Mosaku Shifts Race

Fractured, unpredictable and thrilling chaos are defining this awards season after a wild night at the 79th BAFTA Awards, with the race now barreling into the final stretch before Oscar voting opens Thursday, Feb. 26.

Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” was the night’s dominant force, winning six BAFTAs: best film, director, adapted screenplay, supporting actor (Sean Penn), cinematography and editing.

For Oscar watchers, the technical trophies matter as much as the headline prizes. Winning for the artisans brings crucial momentum. “One Battle After Another” leaves BAFTA positioned as a below-the-line viability and still a clear best picture frontrunner. But if anyone hoped for a night of tidy answers, BAFTA offered the opposite with a loud reshuffle that may have clarified one thing and destabilized nearly everything else.

Enter “Sinners” from Ryan Coogler. His film won three BAFTAs — original screenplay, supporting actress for Wunmi Mosaku and original score — with Coogler’s screenplay win carrying historic weight as the first Black winner in BAFTA’s original screenplay category. The moment land became a milestone, the campaign accelerated.

The win also sharpens the Oscar math.

Only one Black screenwriter has ever won for original screenplay at the Oscars (Jordan Peele for “Get Out,” 2017). Coogler’s BAFTA trophy strengthens his Oscar prospects against a crowded field. yet, and just as important, “Sinners” showed more above-the-line vitality where it needed oxygen most, with Mosaku’s supporting actress win adding real heat to the campaign.

So if you’re keeping score — “One Battle After Another” needed to prove below-the-line love (which it did), and “Sinners” needed to prove more above-the-line love (which it did). Obviously, “One Battle After Another” taking best film and director, after sweeping major critics awards and the DGA leaves many believing it’s over. But if you do your Oscar homework, you know that’s never the case. We have the PGA Awards and the Actor Awards (formerly SAG Awards) happening this upcoming week, all amid final Oscar voting. There’s room for more shifts to happen in the coming days.

Another significant upset came later in the BAFTA evening when Timothée Chalamet lost the leading actor award to Robert Aramayo for his performance in Kirk Jones’ Tourette’s drama “I Swear.” Aramayo also won the EE Rising Star Award, the only honor voted on by the public. Interestingly, Aramayo and “I Swear” have different kinds of momentum, which are forward-looking for next year’s Oscars. The film will be eligible for the 99th Oscars ceremony, with a U.S. release later this year from Sony Pictures Classics.

even so, Chalamet arrived as the presumed frontrunner after major victories at CCAs and Globes for Josh Safdie’s sports dramedy. At this stage in the season, a loss like this cannot be read as a mere statistical blip. Rather, it can change the story voters tell themselves when they fill out their ballots. Whether it proves ultimately fatal to the campaign is unknowable. Still, it is absolutely relevant, particularly with final voting around the corner.

But the damage didn’t stop there. “Marty Supreme” left with an especially brutal distinction, going 0 for 11, tying the record for most losses in a single night.

The SAG Award may now serve as the decisive indicator. Variety has projected for weeks that Ethan Hawke could be the victor in the category for his work as Lorenz Hart in “Blue Moon.” Whoever claims that prize will likely emerge as your Oscar winner. And worth noting: no performer has ever won back-to-back SAG Awards in the same category. Chalamet, who took home the prize last year for “A Complete Unknown,” would make history if he reversed course and won.

Jessie Buckley won leading actress for “Hamnet,” which also won for outstanding British film. The result was broadly anticipated, and the reason is simple, as Buckley’s campaign has looked like the closest thing to a straight line in a season full of detours.

The real circus, though, is the supporting acting races. If BAFTA proved anything, it’s that both are wide open, and not in the polite, pundit-friendly way, but in the genuine chaotic manner. We’ve had three different winners — for both supporting acting races — at the Globes, CCA, and BAFTAs so far.

The closest occurrence of something like this happening was in 2004. Globes went to Clive Owen and Natalie Portman for “Closer” (who both missed SAG noms). CCA went to the “Sideways” duo, Thomas Haden Church and Virginia Madsen, and SAG went to eventual Oscar winner Morgan Freeman from “Million Dollar Baby” and Cate Blanchett from “The Aviator.” That specific year, the BAFTA Awards were the final say on the season, with Owen and Blanchett taking their prizes. In the end, it was SAG that was ultimately correct with Freeman from the eventual best picture winner, and Blanchett from the presumed “runner-up.”

although he’s a two-time Oscar winner for “Mystic River” (2003) and “Milk” (2008), Penn won his first-ever BAFTA for supporting actor for his villainous turn as Col. Lockjaw in “One Battle After Another,” adding his name to the already fractured leaderboard. Jacob Elordi holds the Critics Choice prize for “Frankenstein.” Stellan Skarsgård took the Golden Globe for “Sentimental Value.” Now Penn has a BAFTA. With the Actor Award still pending, this race is starting to resemble a five-sided coin flip. If Benicio del Toro takes the SAG prize, we’ll have four different winners at every televised show, which hasn’t happened since the COVID-era of 2020’s best actress race — which ended up favoring the BAFTA winner from the eventual best picture winner “Nomadland,” Frances McDormand. That leaves surprise Oscar nominee Delroy Lindo, who is still very much on the table for his work in “Sinners.” Interestingly, before 2020, another time four different winners won awards at the precursors was the 2000 season, where Frances McDormand won CCA for “Almost Famous,” before her co-star Kate Hudson took the Golden Globe, followed by SAG with Judi Dench for “Chocolat” and BAFTA for Julie Walters in “Billy Elliot.” The eventual Oscar winner was Marcia Gay Harden from “Pollock,” who, like Lindo, didn’t land any noms from any of the precursors. Could that be a sign of good things to come for Lindo?

Skarsgård’s loss, in particular, lands with force. His turn as film director Gustav Borg in “Sentimental Value” (which won a single prize for non-English-language film) had the role and prestige that often come with supporting, even with a SAG snub under his belt. Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk,” 2018) is the last acting winner to do so without a win from either SAG or BAFTA (and she coincidentally didn’t have nominations at either).

Supporting actress is no calmer. Teyana Taylor has the Golden Globe for “One Battle After Another.” Amy Madigan won Critics Choice for “Weapons” but wasn’t nominated at BAFTA. Mosaku now has a BAFTA for “Sinners.” None of it adds up to a safe consensus, and that uncertainty is the point. With SAG still to come and no obvious default choice, the industry’s own voting bloc may end up acting as the season’s final referee.

Beyond the headline races, the craft categories offered their declarative statements. “Frankenstein” won costume design, makeup and hair, and production design, giving it a firm technical foothold as Oscar voters start locking in their preferences. “Sentimental Value” won film not in the English language, but “The Secret Agent” has Globes and CCA under its belt as well. “Mr. Nobody Against Putin” won documentary over the presumed favorite “The Perfect Neighbor.” but, “Zootopia 2” won animated film, without the presence of “KPop Demon Hunters,” which wasn’t eligible to be nominated due to its release. yet, EJAE still gave the film a presence just one day after it swept the Annie Awards, taking home 10 statuettes.

Heading into the final weeks of awards season, the shape of the battlefield is clearer and messier at the same time. “One Battle After Another” looks like the best picture target everyone else has to hit. Buckley appears to be the closest thing to a near-lock in any acting race. Coogler has the wind at his back in original screenplay. And almost everything else remains in flux. The BAFTAs rarely make the Oscars simpler. This year, they’ve made them electric.

Final Oscar voting will take place from Feb. 26 to March 5. The 98th Oscars will be held March 15 and will air on ABC, hosted by Conan O’Brien. This week’s updated Oscar predictions are below.

Best Picture: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler

Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)

Actor: Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Actress: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)

Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)

Supporting Actress: Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)

Original Screenplay: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler

Adapted Screenplay: “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson

Casting: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler

Animated Feature: “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) — Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong

Production Design: “Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Tamara Deverell; Shane Vieau

Cinematography: “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Michael Bauman

Costume Design: “Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Kate Hawley

Film Editing: “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Andy Jurgensen

Makeup and Hairstyling: “Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey

Sound: “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta

Visual Effects: “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) — Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett

Original Score: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson

Original Song: “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) — EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park

Documentary Feature: “The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) — Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee

International Feature: “Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) — dir. Joachim Trier

Animated Short: “The Girl Who Cried Pearls” (National Film Board of Canada) — Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski

Documentary Short: “All the Empty Rooms” (Netflix) — Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

Live Action Short: “Two People Exchanging Saliva” (Canal+/The New Yorker) — Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata

Projected winner leaders (films): “Sinners” (6), “One Battle After Another” (4); “Frankenstein” (3); “KPop Demon Hunters” (2)