Does the East have a true favorite? Execs, coaches, scouts weigh in

The top of the NBA’s Western Conference has attracted a lot of attention this season—and rightly so.

The reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder began the season with an impressive 24-1 record, boast the league’s current Most Valuable Player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (who is vying for his second straight award), and are aiming to become the NBA’s first repeat champion since the Golden State Warriors in 2018.

The San Antonio Spurs, a surprise team this season, are closely trailing the Thunder in the standings. With standout performances from third-year sensation Victor Wembanyama and second-year breakout star Stephon Castle, the Spurs have triumphed over the Thunder in four of their five games this year. also, the Denver Nuggets, featuring three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and first-time All-Star Jamal Murray, possess a championship pedigree that makes them a serious contender for another deep playoff journey.

Amid all this excitement, the Eastern Conference has been somewhat overlooked, presenting an unusually open field in the NBA.

“There are likely six to seven teams among us that believe if we can maintain good health at the right moment, we can make a serious run,” remarked one Eastern Conference general manager from a team currently in the playoff race. “All teams in the playoffs will have some flaws, yet all also possess substantial potential.”

This level of parity creates a lot of opportunities but also many questions. Conversations with coaches, scouts, and executives reveal a lack of consensus on a clear favorite. This may be frustrating for the Detroit Pistons, who have consistently held the No. 1 seed since November, but this sentiment has been echoed widely.

It also means that teams with high expectations have no obvious excuses if they fall short in the postseason, and that could lead to substantial changes.

“A couple of teams will face serious repercussions if they fail to reach the conference finals,” stated one team president. “This has been the case every year, I know, but there are no honeymoon periods happening in the East.”

As approximately 25% of the season remains, the four leading teams in the East—the Pistons, Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, and Cleveland Cavaliers—along with one potential dark horse, could all make significant noise in the postseason if things go their way.

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Cavaliers | The wild card

The Detroit Pistons are enjoying another extraordinary season. Just two seasons back, they went through a tumultuous stretch of losing 28 consecutive games, finishing with only 14 wins. Last year, they improved dramatically, adding 30 wins. Now, in a crucial matchup against the Cavaliers at Little Caesars Arena (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) on Friday, the Pistons have the opportunity to match their previous year’s total of 44 wins before February concludes.

Cade Cunningham has emerged as a genuine MVP candidate, while Jalen Duren’s decision to seek an extension in the fall has paid off as he’s earned an All-Star selection. Coach J.B. Bickerstaff is solidly in the conversation for Coach of the Year for a second consecutive year. also, the Pistons rank among the top two teams in the East alongside Boston in both offensive and defensive ratings—essential benchmarks for identifying true championship contenders.

“I believe they’re really good,” stated a Western Conference executive regarding the Pistons. “They’re ahead of schedule and are actively responding to that.

With such a strong track record, it doesn’t seem like the East is open. The Pistons fulfill multiple criteria for being a legitimate threat. So, why aren’t they fully perceived as such? Several factors contribute, including their insufficient playoff experience and success. The franchise hasn’t won a playoff series since 2008, and teams typically don’t make vast postseason leaps without facing some challenges along the way.

“Some teams exhibit superb regular-season performances but switch gears in the playoffs,” observed the executive. “I am unsure if they can raise their level. When every team intensifies in the playoffs, can that impact them significantly?

“I consider them the favorites, yet the margin is narrow.”

Monday’s contest against the Spurs underscored potential obstacles for Detroit’s postseason aspirations. Cunningham turned in one of his worst performances of the year, shooting 5-for-26, leading to a sluggish offensive display against the Spurs’ staunch defense.

The clashes against San Antonio and Oklahoma City also spotlighted another challenge: 3-point shooting. In those two games, the Spurs and Thunder collectively outperformed Detroit with a 20-shot difference beyond the arc. Falling short in 3-point production is concerning, as the Pistons rank 28th in the league for shots made per game.

“I have no faith in them,” remarked a Western assistant coach. “Aside from Cade, they don’t have anyone who can consistently drive to the basket. Any other player could struggle to be effective against us.”

From the onset of training camp, the Boston Celtics and coach Joe Mazzulla discarded the notion of this being a gap year. even with diminished expectations following the loss of Jayson Tatum to a torn Achilles and the departure of Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford, the Celtics have managed a 38-20 record and are one of only two teams, alongside the Thunder, ranking among the top seven for both offensive and defensive ratings (second and seventh, respectively).

“They give full effort every minute of every game,” noted a Western scout. “Because if they don’t, Joe [Mazzulla] calls a timeout to address it. yet, sheer effort may only take them so far. They face a talent deficit compared to the top teams, at least until Tatum returns. In the playoffs, teams with superior talent usually prevail.”

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Every discussion about the Celtics eventually returns to Jayson Tatum’s potential return, but the fact that they have thrived despite his absence has drawn widespread acclaim. Jaylen Brown is enjoying career-best averages in points (29.1), rebounds (7.1), and assists (4.8), with LeBron James backing his MVP candidacy. Mazzulla has uncovered developmental success stories throughout the lineup, including starting center Neemias Queta and wings Baylor Scheierman, Jordan Walsh, and rookie guard Hugo Gonzalez.

“They understand their identity completely,” a coaching assistant said. “Their mental resilience is strong. They are decisive with minimal second-guessing.”

yet, the lingering question remains: do they possess enough talent to advance deep into the postseason, potentially returning to the Finals for the third time in six years without Tatum? This question is why every discussion about the Celtics ultimately touches on what they can achieve and Tatum’s role in that.

“They’re already fantastic without Jayson,” the assistant coach noted. “Now add him for 20 minutes per game, or possibly more? They’re clearly my top choice.”

High expectations were established last spring when the Knicks let go of coach Tom Thibodeau after reaching the conference finals for the first time in 25 years. Owner James Dolan reinforced those expectations last month in an unusual radio interview on WFAN.

“We aim to reach the Finals and we should win them,” Dolan expressed. “In sports, anything can happen, but achieving the Finals is absolutely essential for us. Winning the Finals should also be part of our goals.”

The Knicks began the season as co-favorites to win the East alongside Cleveland for good reason. They boast a highly talented roster, including All-Stars Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, versatile wings OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart, alongside the league’s top offensive rebounder, Mitchell Robinson, and solid bench depth.

“The Knicks have the top roster,” claimed a rival coach in the East. “While I’m unsure if they’ll play at their best when it matters most, I genuinely believe they have the best team.”

The Knicks are on track to achieve a minimum of 50 wins for a third consecutive season—something they haven’t accomplished since Pat Riley’s tenure in the 1990s. Nevertheless, the team has consistently felt unsettled this year. Towns has been vocal about his displeasure concerning his offensive role since training camp. They’ve faced ongoing inconsistency. And while critiques of Thibodeau’s rigidity persist, the team has sometimes appeared adrift, lacking a distinct identity in its first year under Mike Brown.

“The situation with Towns has probably been extremely frustrating for them,” remarked an advance scout. “But collectively, the responsibility falls on all involved. KAT, Mike [Brown], and Brunson must collaborate to establish greater consistency as that’s crucial for their success.”

Recent weeks have seen a significant shift for the Cavaliers following their surprising decision to disband their “Core Four,” trading Darius Garland to the LA Clippers in exchange for James Harden, a 36-year-old former MVP and soon-to-be Hall of Famer.

That trade, along with a prior swap sending De’Andre Hunter to the Sacramento Kings for Dennis Schroder and Keon Ellis, has provided Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson with additional depth and versatility on the roster, revitalizing Cleveland’s status as a pre-season threat. Now, the team that was sitting at 17-16 and eighth in the East in late December is now only two games behind Boston for second place.

“Adjusting to James Harden midseason is a tall order for any team, particularly when their offense has been solid the past few years,” shared an Eastern executive. “Though Harden’s style can enhance everyone on the court, it still requires an adjustment period. They seem fully committed, which is crucial for overcoming these challenges.”

Harden quickly recognized center Jarrett Allen and guard Sam Merrill as players who could effectively complement his game. Almost immediately, Harden began connecting with Allen for lobs, while Merrill, accustomed to creating space off the ball, has capitalized on the opportunities that Harden’s presence opens up, even netting a career-high 32 points in Harden’s home debut this month.

Harden has also praised forward Dean Wade for his versatility, noting his capacity to defend multiple positions at 6-foot-9. Wade has demonstrated solid performances against smaller competitors, including notable efforts against Brunson. Throughout the season, Atkinson has shifted Wade’s role in the starting lineup but appears to be favoring his presence in a larger lineup as small forward. The coach is also considering combinations where Wade plays center alongside Allen while Evan Mobley rests.

even with all the changes, the Cavaliers must also resolve whether they can generate sufficient defensive stops, particularly during crucial playoff matchups, with Harden, Donovan Mitchell, and their existing wing rotation.

“I’m more optimistic about this version of the Cavs than I was a month ago,” observed a Western executive, “but they continue to have a clear weakness in perimeter defense. If you’re relying on Max Strus and Dean Wade as your primary defenders, the challenge remains: two guards, two bigs, and ongoing defense issues. even so, adding Harden is a significant boost as they head into the final stretch.”

Among those who could potentially disrupt the top teams in the conference, league insiders have frequently cited the 76ers, who currently sit in the sixth position in the East, a mere half-game ahead of the Orlando Magic.

With the combination of All-NBA guard Tyrese Maxey and former MVP center Joel Embiid, the 76ers possess the elite talent to pose a genuine threat in any playoff series. yet, their chances heavily rely on their health, with Embiid being the most significant variable in that equation. also, with Paul George sidelined until late March, the 76ers’ roster lacks considerable size outside of Embiid’s dominance.

“They are the wild card in my view,” stated the assistant coach. “They could easily be swept 4-0 in the first round, but if they are healthy, matching up against Embiid and Maxey presents challenges for any opponent.”

The 76ers have secured victories against the Celtics and Knicks twice this season but have struggled against the Cavaliers and Pistons, going winless at 0-5.

“Given their firepower, they deserve a mention,” emphasized the Western executive. “Maxey is phenomenal, and in a playoff series, if he heats up alongside an engaged Embiid, it creates a significant mismatch. That’s a dynamic no other team possesses, which is why, despite being the fifth team in line, I can’t completely count them out.”