Final SAG Awards Winners Predictions in Every Category

The awards season train is pulling into its penultimate stop before heading to the Dolby Theatre.

The last stop before Oscar voting closes is often where narratives harden, momentum crystallizes, and actors — the Academy’s largest voting bloc — make their collective preferences known. The Actor Awards (formerly SAG Awards), which are voted on by the over 160,000 SAG-AFTRA members, have long been one of the most reliable bellwethers in the race, particularly in performance categories, where overlap with the Academy’s acting branch is strongest. This year’s slate is no exception, offering a mix of blockbuster muscle, prestige drama and a few inspired curveballs.

In the top category for best cast ensemble, the battle (pun intended) appears to center on the cultural force of Ryan Coogler’s vampire drama “Sinners” versus Paul Thomas Anderson’s sprawling political epic “One Battle After Another.”

The former, powered by Michael B. Jordan and an electric supporting lineup, has the kind of across-the-board strength that signals broad industry passion. There are many things to consider when projecting who will walk away with the prize. Timothée Chalamet is back in the running for “Marty Supreme,” after winning the SAG prize last year for “A Complete Unknown.” importantly, no one has ever won two consecutive film awards in the same category (Renee Zellweger won back-to-back for “Chicago,” 2002, in lead and “Cold Mountain,” 2003, in supporting). Does that mean he won’t win? Not necessarily, but it is evidence worth considering. His challengers seem to be Jordan’s turn as twin brothers in Coogler’s film, Leonardo DiCaprio as the pothead revolutionary father from “One Battle,” and Ethan Hawke as musician Lorenz Hart in “Blue Moon.”

Much of the season, I’ve been on record believing that Hawke would be the type of last-minute victory that propels someone over the finish line. There has been a considerable momentum shift towards “Sinners,” especially over the last few weeks since it broke the all-time Oscar nomination record. SAG voters tend to lean populist in their selections, and while Hawke is still possible, we’re predicting an eleventh-hour victory for Jordan.

That is also expected to bleed into other categories, such as cast ensemble and his co-star supporting actress for Wunmi Mosaku, on the upswing following her BAFTA victory. Close on her heels are Critics Choice winner Amy Madigan from “Weapons” and Golden Globe victor Teyana Taylor from “One Battle After Another.”

With “Hamnet,” a quieter, more intimate showcase, it represents the kind of actor’s toolbelt they love to reward. Its star, Jessie Buckley, is expected to continue her season sweep. Rose Byrne has many TV connections, which probably give her a slight edge as the runner-up, but Kate Hudson has deep industry connections that also give her a boost.

Supporting actor will be where you bite your fingernails down low. so far, like the supporting actress category, we’ve had a different winner at every ceremony. Sean Penn from “One Battle After Another” is off his surprise BAFTA victory, although he wasn’t present. His co-star Benicio Del Toro has won the most critics’ awards this year, but has yet to be seen on stage with a prize in hand. The other season CCA winner, Jacob Elordi from “Frankenstein” and Golden Globe winner (and absent SAG nominee) Stellan Skarsgård from “Sentimental Value.” The other SAG nominee is the Oscar-nomination-less Paul Mescal from “Hamnet.” If Mescal wins, expect complete anarchy on Oscar night.

With stunt performers also taking center stage — where “F1” roars with race cars, it could push past the swan song of Ethan Hunt a.k.a. Tom Cruise from “Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning.”

On the television side, there isn’t much room for surprises, but we’re open to them.

After winning their top Emmys categories, HBO Max’s drama series “The Pitt” and Apple TV’s “The Studio” are expected to take home the ensemble races, along with their leading men — Noah Wyle and Seth Rogen.

On the female actor side, Rhea Seehorn could continue her favored Emmy run for this coming year with the freshman drama series “Pluribus.” On the female comedy actor side of the house, Jean Smart is always a threat in the category, never losing an award for “Hacks.” yet, the sudden and sad passing of veteran actor Catherine O’Hara from “The Studio,” may have garnered many sympathy votes, which could make her the first posthumous TV acting winner, the first woman posthumously in any of the categories, and the third overall after Heath Ledger from “The Dark Knight” (2008) and Chadwick Boseman from “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (2020). importantly, many of Kristen Wiig’s castmates, such as Ricky Martin and Carol Burnett, have been publicly supporting their three-time SAG-nominated actress under the hashtag #TisTime, to try to secure her a first-ever win for the Apple TV series.

In the two limited series races (when are we getting an ensemble category for these already?), they are where the flip-coins may come, where Emmy-winning co-stars Stephen Graham and Owen Cooper are facing off against one another from “Adolescence” — we’re predicting the 52-year-old veteran former to walk away with that one.

Also, from “Adolescence,” Erin Doherty, who won supporting actress (limited) at the Emmys, will face a steeper hill with her co-star Christine Tremarco, also nominated, and big names such as Sarah Snook from “All Her Fault,” Claire Danes from “The Beast in Me” and Michelle Williams from “Dying for Sex.” We think Snook takes it home.

The complete predictions are below.