The Patriots’ defense showcased a commanding display in a snowy AFC Championship Game against the Denver Broncos and backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham, while the Seahawks fought hard until the final whistle in a close match-up with their NFC West rivals, the Los Angeles Rams. Though the Seahawks are favored early on, there’s a lot to analyze in this rematch of Super Bowl XLIX.
Our betting analysts are here to provide their initial bets for Super Bowl LX.
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Odds are accurate as of the time of publication.
Seattle Seahawks -4.5 vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, 6:30 p.m., NBC
Money Line: Seahawks (-225); Patriots (+185)
Total: 46.5; Opened: 46.5
Kenneth Walker III 21-plus receiving yards (-111)
Ben Solak: Walker has consistently been utilized as a receiver in the Seahawks’ most critical games of the year, and with Zach Charbonnet now sidelined for the postseason, he has more opportunities available in early down routes. Anticipate the Patriots to intensely blitz Sam Darnold, aiming to provoke his worst performance. When the pressure mounts, Walker will be a crucial quick outlet. His explosive ability also makes this a favorable bet.
Kenneth Walker III OVER 20.5 receiving yards (-111)
Liz Loza: Walker has surpassed 25 receiving yards in four of his last five games, including recording at least 29 receiving yards in each postseason appearance. The Patriots allowed running backs to average nearly 31 receiving yards per game during the season, including 22 yards to Denver’s rookie back in their conference championship showdown. With New England’s defense focusing on pressuring Darnold, there should be ample opportunities for short passes to Walker (I expect him to easily surpass 2.5 catches), propelling him toward 30 receiving yards at Levi’s Stadium.
Seahawks -4.5
Seth Walder: Observing the two conference championship games, it appears evident the Seahawks operate at a significantly higher level than the Patriots — and that’s not merely attributed to these games (including a half played in harsh weather). It reflects the overall performance of both teams throughout the season.
This perspective is supported by ESPN’s FPI, which assesses teams based on their performance against the quality of their opponents. Heading into Sunday, they rated the Seahawks a solid four points superior to the Patriots. What transpired on Sunday only heightened my confidence in Seattle, especially since the player I was most concerned about (Darnold, following a challenging second half of the season!) played a pivotal role in their win.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 8-plus receptions (+121)
Eric Moody: Smith-Njigba excelled against the Rams in the NFC Championship, snagging 10 of 12 targets for 153 yards and a touchdown. The chemistry between him and Darnold is undeniable. He has recorded at least eight receptions in 11 of 19 games this season and averages 9.4 targets per game. While the Patriots’ secondary is strong, the volume of targets should ensure Smith-Njigba tallies numerous receptions.
OVER 46.5
Pam Maldonado: New England has the capability to score without relying solely on explosive plays. Conversely, Seattle thrives on creating big plays. Both defenses focus heavily on turnovers, which can shorten the field and drive up totals. Super Bowls may tighten up initially, but they often open up later. Just one short field for each team could push the score past the total.
Rhamondre Stevenson 25-plus receiving yards (+120)
Matt Bowen: The Seahawks utilized Cover 2 (two-deep zone) on 33.1% of opponent dropbacks this season, the highest rate in the league. This strategy limits vertical throws and pushes the ball underneath, creating opportunities for Stevenson as a checkdown or screen target for quarterback Drake Maye. Including playoffs, Stevenson has achieved 25 or more receiving yards in five of his last eight games.
Milton Williams UNDER 0.25 sacks (-204)
Walder: This may not be the most exciting first Super Bowl bet to place, but it aligns with my betting philosophy of building models and betting based on those findings. This particular wager stands out significantly from my most effective model: player-level sacks. Williams had an impressive season, achieving a 13.0% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle, which would have ranked sixth had he qualified. even so, defensive tackles typically record sacks at a much lower rate, and Williams demonstrated this with 5.5 sacks across 15 games, despite strong performances.
and, considering the Seahawks lean towards the run and that Darnold has been slightly above average at avoiding sacks, this price is simply too appealing to overlook.
