How the Patriots, Seahawks won NFL conference title games

We witnessed two contrasting one-score NFL playoff games in the conference championship round on Sunday.

The Patriots defeated the Broncos 10-7 in a snowy AFC Championship Game, while the Seahawks edged the Rams 31-27 in a high-scoring NFC Championship Game. The outcome? The Patriots and Seahawks are heading to Super Bowl LX on February 8.

Did the Patriots gain an advantage from Bo Nix being absent from the Broncos’ roster, or was this a decisive performance for their defense? Did Sam Darnold finally overcome his struggles against the Rams and show he can win significant games? And were coaching decisions at fault for both the Broncos and Rams?

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I’ll break down these questions and explore the implications of the two conference title games. Let’s begin with the NFC.

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NE-DEN | LAR-SEA

Sam Darnold finally delivered. Regardless of Super Bowl outcomes, Darnold has transformed his career from a disappointing draft pick to a pivotal player on an incredible team. Now, having decisive victories over a Rams squad that had haunted him, he stands one win away from an unexpected Super Bowl title.

Even during his rise from struggles under coaches Adam Gase and Matt Rhule, it was easy to temper discussions about Darnold’s success. In 2024, playing behind a strong Vikings coaching staff and talented playmakers, metrics rated him as an average quarterback. His rough finish against the Lions and Rams submerged the Vikings’ faith in him, prompting them to trust J.J. McCarthy as a cheaper solution at quarterback.

Darnold then moved to the Seahawks, quickly becoming the NFL’s most efficient QB for three months. Yet, this success was largely due to a play-action-heavy offense and standout receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. When Darnold faced the Rams in Week 11, however, he faltered in a 21-19 defeat. importantly, he dropped from the top of the NFL’s Total QBR rankings to 27th afterward.

Even in the Seahawks’ December victory over the Rams, Darnold’s performance was overshadowed by external factors. He averaged fewer than one air yard per throw in the opening half as Seattle aimed to shield him from the Rams’ formidable pass rush. He registered two interceptions in those contests but executed crucial throws in a thrilling fourth-quarter comeback and overtime to secure a 38-37 win.

Since then, Darnold’s contributions have been less critical, with the Seahawks relying on their defense and a revitalized rushing game. yet, this dynamic changed on Sunday. Running back Kenneth Walker III had an impressive outing, breaking tackles, yet the Seahawks’ backs managed only 66 rushing yards on 22 carries. Seattle’s defense did step up with a vital fourth-quarter stop, but the Rams found it easy to move the ball, averaging over 8 yards per play and scoring 27 points. The Seahawks needed a stellar performance from Darnold.

And they got one. Darnold completed 25 of 36 passes for 346 yards and three touchdowns. His Total QBR of 82.9 was the second-best playoff performance by a quarterback, following Josh Allen’s legendary game against the Jaguars in the wild-card round. Stripped of a running game, Darnold excelled as a traditional passer, racking up 248 yards and two touchdowns without play action. The game hinged on his performance, and he rose to the occasion with precise throws.

Crucially, the costly mistakes that plagued him against the Rams largely vanished. He was not intercepted and put just one ball in jeopardy. He took three sacks, two caused by immediate pressure, which left him little choice but to go down.

Darnold’s career hang-ups with sustained pressure might have defined past seasons, but this time he went 5-of-11 for 102 yards and all three touchdown passes while under duress. The visible anxiety and frustration that previously affected him in such situations were absent. He effectively balanced extending plays and making timely throws under pressure during the NFC title match.

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Sam Darnold throws a dime to JSN for a TD

Sam Darnold throws a 14-yard touchdown pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba to give the Seahawks a 17-13 lead vs. the Rams.

The Seahawks recognized that their path against the Rams required Darnold to be involved and thriving. The previous game plan of hiding the QB was cast aside, as Darnold found Rashid Shaheed for a 51-yard gain on the initial third down attempt and averaged 8.6 air yards per throw throughout the contest.

Following the Seahawks’ fourth-quarter stop, Darnold was entrusted again with the lead. Seattle milked the clock, skillfully using aggressive throws to drain the Rams’ timeouts. Darnold dropped back four times on second and third downs, rewarding his team’s trust. On a second-and-6, the play fake drew the Rams’ attention, enabling Darnold to find Walker for a critical first down.

Following a poor throw that missed an open Shaheed, Darnold rebounded with a completion to Cooper Kupp on the next play for another first down. With 3:05 remaining, the Seahawks again utilized play action, and Darnold escaped the pocket to connect with Smith-Njigba for another critical first down. A second holding penalty on Rams cornerback Cobie Durant stopped the Rams from regaining possession with any reasonable chance of a comeback. Darnold held onto the ball on a crucial third down despite defensive tackle Braden Fiske’s pressure, showcasing resilience.

It’s important to note that Darnold’s receivers played pivotal roles as well. Shaheed finally made an impact as a deep threat, while Smith-Njigba executed a remarkable one-handed snag followed by evading a tackle for 42 yards. Coordinated plays also freed Smith-Njigba for an uncomplicated touchdown. Kupp consistently moved the chains, while Jake Bobo contributed with a touchdown reception.

While Darnold’s standout performance against the Rams doesn’t ensure future success, criticism will follow him if he falters in the Super Bowl. The notion that Darnold’s presence as quarterback would hinder championship aspirations has vanished. He just outshined likely MVP Matthew Stafford to advance to the Super Bowl and has left his troubled narrative behind.

by contrast, the Rams will view their 2025 defeats as blending into one another. Though Stafford and the offense combined for six turnovers in baffling losses to the Falcons and Panthers, their four other losses lined up similarly. The Rams possessed talent but struggled on execution at crucial times, which cost them narrow defeats against superior teams.

When the Rams lose, it typically follows this script:

1. Special teams calamity. The Rams ranked 26th in DVOA for special teams, which likely undersells their failures in key situations. Blocked field goals doomed them against the Eagles and 49ers in earlier weeks. Even their playoff game saw a crucial blocked punt leading to a crucial touchdown.

While the Rams managed to mask some of those issues, including winning games despite lackluster special teams, they weren’t as fortunate against the Seahawks. Punt returner Xavier Smith was to blame, muffing two punts. The second led to a short field for the Seahawks, resulting in a touchdown on the very next play. This singular turnover proved pivotal in a tightly contested game.

Dareke Young pressured Smith into the error, running past Rams cornerback Emmanuel Forbes Jr. on punt coverage, highlighting another persistent weakness for the team…

2. Exploitable cornerbacks. This position has long been a liability for GM Les Snead’s squad; despite attempts to shore it up, teams successfully targeted these players during critical moments, including against the Eagles and Panthers.

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Cooper Kupp gets controversial first down late in 4th

Cooper Kupp makes a clutch catch for the Seahawks that the referees rule a first down in a critical moment.

The Rams cycled through cornerbacks throughout the postseason. Injuries contributed to a lack of stability, forcing quick adaptations and reliance on veteran players. For example, Forbes played minimally throughout the first half yet featured during the second half, questioning reasons behind earlier decisions by the coaching staff.

Previous concerns about cornerback performance returned, showcasing repeated failures that had haunted the Rams throughout their defeats. For instance, Forbes allowed several significant completions that built momentum for the Seahawks and ultimately doomed the Rams.

3. Fourth-down failures. The Rams’ past games showcased recurring struggles on crucial fourth-down plays. Usually, strategic decisions backfired. In Sunday’s game, the Rams failed to convert on a critical fourth-and-4.

These decisions raised eyebrows. After a possible obstruction, McVay noted miscommunication rather than accepting responsibility, turning to the opposing team’s defensive adjustments.

Fans might interpret such comments as sour grapes, but it’s essential to understand the context from McVay’s viewpoint. During the fourth-and-4, an aggressive defensive setup initially misled the Rams. in the end, Stafford’s choices under pressure determined the play’s success.

Rams coaching staff typically engaged with key statistics, but their late-game management left room for criticism. For example, during a critical third-and-7 with little time on the clock, McVay hesitated to challenge a suspect spot, opting instead for a timeout that could have been saved for later use.

The missed opportunity resulted in greater adversity. even if not solely responsible for the defeat, the cumulative effect of poorly judged decisions and inaccuracies on field goals solidified the Rams’ fate.

The Patriots’ win wasn’t glamorous. The most memorable moment from their 2001 Super Bowl run was their divisional victory over the Raiders, known as the “Tuck Rule” game, resulting in a crucial late-game field goal.

Sunday’s victory over the Broncos won’t enter the annals of memorable games. The match hinged on a solitary 23-yard field goal, marking a struggle for both kickers amidst worsening weather conditions.

Stidham faced a challenging second half, struggling to produce subsequent yards. although a promising beginning, his later attempts largely faltered, void of conversions. Denver’s opportunities were stifled, including a blocked kick that prevented any resurgence.

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Stidham’s notable blunder came under pressure during a pivotal moment leading to a turnover. The Broncos had chances for offensive progress but failed to capitalize on defensive weaknesses.

Questions arise regarding Sean Payton’s decisions not to pursue field goal attempts, a controversy that might play into future evaluations of his coaching strategy. Evidence suggests that missed opportunities might tilt the game’s outcome against Denver.

Earlier injuries had plagued the Broncos’ lineup, partially explaining the limitations in offensive strategy. still, they demonstrated a strong competitive presence during a difficult 2025 season that culminated in hosting an AFC Championship Game.

For the Patriots, evaluating their performance in the postseason is complex. While showcasing glimpses of greatness, they faced questions regarding their ability amid a supposedly favorable schedule.

Maye has battled through challenging games, yet his passing efficiency has raised concerns despite organizing effective plays on the ground. His performance became crucial to the victory, making pivotal runs and scrambles, ultimately contributing to the team’s success.

in the end, if Maye claims the Super Bowl title, his journey through formidable defenses could mark a standout achievement among quarterbacks. By ranking metrics, he has faced and prevailed over several high-caliber defenses in this postseason.

yet, the core narrative has revolved around the Patriots’ defense, which has been surprisingly suffocating despite an unimpressive regular season. They’ve suppressed opponents significantly in the playoffs, raising further scrutiny and skepticism about their effectiveness.

New England’s defensive strategy showcased adaptability, enabling them to adjust effectively against varying offenses. Their capable cornerback play and means of adjustment through various strategies connect to their postseason success, leading fans to wonder how effective they will be in upcoming matches.