Key Super Bowl intel through the lens of NFL Next Gen Stats

Flashback to early September, when 32 NFL teams were preparing for a journey to Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, site of Super Bowl LX.

Now, just two teams are left, with the Seattle Seahawks poised to face the New England Patriots on Sunday for the coveted Lombardi Trophy.

The last matchup between the Seahawks and Patriots in a Super Bowl, 11 years ago, ended with Malcolm Butler’s iconic interception of Russell Wilson, a moment etched in Super Bowl lore.

Most players from that game have since retired, but the impact lingers.

This year’s Seahawks defense mirrors that 2014 Super Bowl team, both allowing the fewest points in the NFL during the regular season. On offense, Seattle has heavily relied on quarterback Sam Darnold, who has showcased a remarkable 122 passer rating throughout the playoffs.

The Patriots are spearheaded by second-year quarterback Drake Maye. While his regular-season performance earned him MVP finalist recognition, the playoffs have been a different story, with four touchdowns in three games, a completion percentage of 55%, and being sacked 15 times. During the regular season, Maye recorded 35 total touchdowns and led the league with a 72% completion rate.

During the postseason, the Patriots defense has excelled, allowing just 8.6 points per game, with the Los Angeles Chargers as the next closest team, yielding 16 points in their opening-round loss to New England.

Here’s a closer look at some NFL Next Gen Stats that could highlight key factors in the Super Bowl:

Darnold under pressure

Throughout the playoffs, the Patriots have successfully pressured opposing quarterbacks. In the divisional round against the Houston Texans, quarterback C.J. Stroud struggled, completing just 2 of 16 passes for 13 yards and one interception when facing pressure.

In the wild-card round, the Patriots limited Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert to three completions on eight attempts while racking up six sacks. In the AFC Championship Game against the Denver Broncos, quarterback Jarrett Stidham managed only one completion for 4 yards on 10 attempts under pressure.

Darnold, however, has maintained his composure and avoided turnovers throughout 21 pressured dropbacks across two playoff games, completing 7 of 16 passes for 117 yards and four touchdowns (with five sacks). In the NFC Championship Game against the Los Angeles Rams, he threw three touchdowns while under pressure (5-of-11 for 102 yards).

Sam Darnold completed 5-of-11 passes under pressure for 102 yards and a career-high three TDs against the Rams in the NFC Championship.

Across Darnold’s first two games against the Rams this season, Darnold threw zero TDs and three INTs under pressure.

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— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 26, 2026

This contrasts sharply with Darnold’s regular season, where he posted a league-high turnover rate of 7.2% on pressured dropbacks, including six interceptions and five lost fumbles. The Patriots have forced four turnovers through pressure in their three playoff games, compared to three during the regular season (the third-lowest total).

Nevertheless, Darnold has received solid protection. Facing the second-highest blitz rate (35.1%), the Seahawks managed a mere 29.2% pressure rate (the fifth lowest) and only allowed 38 unblocked pressures (seventh fewest). Every Seahawks offensive lineman ranked in the top 12 for their position in terms of pressure rate allowed.

Protecting Maye

In the AFC Championship Game, Maye was sacked five times on 11 pressured dropbacks, achieving his second-highest pressure-to-sack rate in a game at 45.5%, only surpassed by his 62.5% rate in the divisional round against the Texans (eight pressures, five sacks).

This postseason, Maye has been sacked 15 times—the highest for any player reaching a Super Bowl since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. He has a daunting 48.4% sack rate on pressured dropbacks this postseason, more than double his regular season rate of 20.3%.

The Seahawks defense this season, including playoffs, per @NextGenStats:

• 22.3% blitz rate (5th lowest)
• 38.1% pressure rate (4th highest)
• 48.2% pressure rate with blitz (3rd highest)
• 35.2% pressure without blitz (5th highest)

Drake Maye passer rating by situation (QB…

— NFL Researcher (@NFL_Researcher) January 28, 2026

On the Patriots’ offensive line, left tackle Will Campbell allowed five pressures on 30 pass blocks in the AFC Championship (16.7%) and has given up four or more pressures in each playoff game. He has faced challenging matchups, going head-to-head against Broncos pass rusher Nik Bonitto (four pressures allowed) and Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr. (three pressures allowed, two sacks) 14 times. Bonitto had the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL during the regular season (20.2%, minimum 250 pass rushes), and Anderson ranked third with 19.5%.

Yet, the task won’t be any easier against Seattle’s defense, currently tied for seventh in overall sacks (47).

JSN’s dominance from all over the field

Finding an answer for Seahawks wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba has proven to be a challenge for opponents this season. The All-Pro receiver topped the NFL in receiving yards (1,793) and excelled when aligned out wide, leading the league with 1,378 yards there, while also recording 956 yards from the slot last season.

In the NFC Championship Game, Smith-Njigba racked up 153 receiving yards, with 105 coming from out wide, and caught his first career touchdown when lined up in the backfield. The Patriots will surely be vigilant in tracking his movements.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba totaled a league-leading 1,378 yards when aligned as an outside receiver this season after pacing the NFL with 956 from the slot in 2024.

He is the only player in the Next Gen Stats era to ever lead the NFL in both categories.#SEAvsNE | #SuperBowlLX pic.twitter.com/Z4k90wBBl4

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 3, 2026

Smith-Njigba aligned out wide on 81.3% of snaps this season but saw a significant spike in his slot usage, lining up at a season-high 42.1% rate in the NFC Championship Game. This could play a crucial role if Seattle’s offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak opts to keep his star receiver away from All-Pro cornerback Christian Gonzalez.

Key matchup: Pats jumbo vs. Seahawks’ nickel personnel

The Patriots’ offense has utilized jumbo personnel on 18.4% of its snaps since Week 11 (115 of 624, including the playoffs), scoring a league-high 13 touchdowns from this grouping during the regular season while averaging 6.1 yards per play (third-most). The primary beneficiary has been Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who rushed for 225 yards and scored four touchdowns on 23 carries from jumbo sets this season.

Stevenson’s average of 9.8 yards per carry in jumbo formations was a full three yards more than any other player in 2025 and the highest by any player with at least 20 such carries in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). The Patriots scored 10 touchdowns as a team from jumbo formations, which is two more than any other team (Steelers, eight).

What set the Patriots & Seahawks apart was their effectiveness at defending against heavy personnel.

Seattle remained in nickel on 77.8% of plays against sub packages (no other team surpassed 60.5%), leading the league in defensive EPA.

New England also ranked top 10 in this regard. pic.twitter.com/Fd8r9ylDWJ

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 4, 2026

Throughout the regular season, the Seahawks faced limited jumbo personnel (only 26 plays, the fourth-lowest total), but they matched jumbo looks with nickel personnel on 46.2% of those snaps.

More Maye

Maye excelled in downfield passing this season (10 or more air yards), leading the league with 112 completions while also boasting a league-best 61.2% completion percentage. He threw 19 touchdowns on downfield attempts, tied with Darnold and Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford for the most.

yet, in the playoffs, Maye has struggled, going 9-of-26 on passes over 10 yards (34%). If he can’t unleash deep throws, he might need to rely on his legs, having recorded the third-most scramble yards this season at 423. He was particularly effective at scrambling on early downs.

Drake Maye totaled 65 rushing yards, a career-high six first downs, and a TD on the ground in the AFC Championship against the Broncos.

Maye scored his touchdown and sealed the game with a first down on designed runs while scrambling three times for 57 yards.

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— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 25, 2026

On first and second down scramble rushes, Maye led the NFL with 46 carries, 330 yards, and 16 first downs (tied for the most with Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes). His scramble run rate of 10.7% on early downs surpassed his 9.1% rate on third down, making him one of 14 qualified quarterbacks to take off and run more on first and second downs than third.