Men’s college basketball tiers: Ranking 47 teams from contenders to Cinderellas

The 2025-26 men’s college basketball season seems like a distant memory already. Before it began, we assessed and ranked 80 teams based on our predictions for the end of the year, considering their potential impact in the NCAA tournament.

Some predictions remained accurate. UConn is still positioned to clinch its third national title in four attempts. Duke and Texas Tech have solidified their status as Final Four competitors, as we anticipated. also, Nebraska has proven itself as a comeback contender, bouncing back from last season’s 7-13 Big Ten record to win its first 20 games this year. The Cornhuskers could very well become the men’s basketball equivalent of Indiana football — a turnaround success story.

but, there were also surprising miscalculations. We labeled Arizona as merely a second-weekend threat, yet the Wildcats have dominated the past seven weeks, remaining atop the AP Top 25. We also underestimated Vanderbilt, contrary to our bubble team prediction, as they started the season with 16 consecutive wins.

In hindsight, our initial predictions lacked foresight. even so, we utilized the knowledge we’ve gathered this season to re-evaluate our rankings, narrowing the list down to just 47 teams.

ESPN’s Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf provide insights into the season’s developments so far.

Jump to:
Title favorites | Final Four contenders
Sweet 16 threats | Final Four or first-round exit?
Can win a game | Cinderellas

Tier I: National championship favorites

Arizona Wildcats
Michigan Wolverines
UConn Huskies

These teams reached this tier at different points during the nonconference period.

For Arizona, it was their road victory against UConn in mid-November, following earlier wins against Florida and UCLA (with Auburn and Alabama soon joining that list). Michigan’s ascent came from impressive displays at the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas during Feast Week, particularly a dominating 40-point victory over Gonzaga in the championship match. UConn’s rise was a bit delayed but was marked by a series of triumphs against BYU, Illinois, Kansas, and Florida — all on the road — and a return to full fitness that solidified their elite national status.

Arizona currently boasts a 21-0 record after defeating BYU in Provo on Monday, leading by as much as 19 points and exhibiting dominance throughout the game. Tommy Lloyd’s squad is a clear national championship contender, blending youth with experience, and showcasing the best defense he’s coached in Tucson to date. The Wildcats excel in various styles of play, with Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries leading the backcourt and Koa Peat, Motiejus Krivas, and Tobe Awaka manning the paint. Ivan Kharchenkov has emerged as a top-tier defender in the Big 12, heightening the Wildcat defense to another level.

Michigan endured its first loss of the season in early January after starting 14-0, many of those victories coming by margins exceeding 30 points. Dusty May has heavily relied on size, starting three players who are 6-foot-9 or taller, yet the Wolverines defend well and maintain a rapid pace. Their elite frontcourt features Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr., and Aday Mara, while Elliot Cadeau has improved as both a shooter and playmaker.

Though UConn’s efficiency stats aren’t on par with the other two teams in this tier, the Huskies have consistently found ways to win close games during Big East play and have been toughened by a challenging nonconference schedule. After regaining full health, Dan Hurley’s squad resembles his two championship-caliber teams from 2023 and 2024. They boast depth, size, playmaking, and a plethora of perimeter shooters, such as Alex Karaban, Solo Ball, Braylon Mullins, and Silas Demary Jr. — Borzello

Tier II: Final Four contenders

Duke Blue Devils
Houston Cougars
Purdue Boilermakers
Iowa State Cyclones
Gonzaga Bulldogs
BYU Cougars
Illinois Fighting Illini
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Texas Tech Red Raiders

The NCAA tournament often hinges on players who excel under pressure, meaning the journey in March relies on talent capable of performing at a higher level. While the teams in this tier display their own weaknesses, they could narrow the gap with national championship contenders if their stars elevate their gameplay as the weeks unfold.

Cameron Boozer is, statistically speaking, having a season that rivals some of the best Duke talents over the past 25 years, with an offensive rating surpassing those of JJ Redick, Zion Williamson, and Cooper Flagg in their National Player of the Year campaigns. Boozer is recognized as a household name, in part due to his father Carlos Boozer’s pivotal role in Duke’s 2001 national title, yet the other teams in this tier rely on breakout performances from emerging stars.

play

Cameron Boozer’s 19-point double-double leads Duke rout of Louisville

Cameron Boozer’s 19-point double-double leads Duke rout of Louisville

Following a career-high 32-point performance in a tight yet crucial victory over Illinois in December, Nebraska’s Pryce Sandfort offered the Cornhuskers a chance for another significant win at Michigan on Tuesday, despite being without two starters due to injury, ultimately falling 75-72. Illinois’ Keaton Wagler has similarly impressive outings, having led the Fighting Illini to a road win against Purdue with a program-record 46 points while standout Kylan Boswell was out injured this past Saturday.

At Houston, Kingston Flemings has emerged as a projected top-five NBA draft pick, recording a career-high 42 points despite a loss to Texas Tech last Saturday. He stands out as the first freshman coach Kelvin Sampson has entrusted with such responsibility. For Purdue, Braden Smith currently leads the nation in assists (9.0 per game), serving as the spark for believers during a recent slump. Meanwhile, at Iowa State, Tamin Lipsey has effectively set up Joshua Jefferson — a legit contender for National Player of the Year — for numerous score opportunities as the Cyclones contend for the Big 12 title.

Should Graham Ike (ankle) recover promptly and Braden Huff (knee) return to form in time for the NCAA tournament, Gonzaga could prove to have one of the best defensive squads under Mark Few, setting the stage for postseason success. Finally, Texas Tech stars JT Toppin and Christian Anderson — who together produced 43 points, 16 rebounds, and 12 assists in Saturday’s victory over Houston — may once again become a winning formula for the Red Raiders in March. — Medcalf

play

Houston Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: Game Highlights

Houston Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: Game Highlights

Tier III: Second-weekend threats

Michigan State Spartans
Florida Gators
Arkansas Razorbacks
Kansas Jayhawks
Vanderbilt Commodores
Virginia Cavaliers
Alabama Crimson Tide

This tier features teams with specific strengths yet pronounced weaknesses that could hinder their progress beyond the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight, even though they possess the potential to reach those stages.

When Darryn Peterson (21.6 points per game) is in the lineup, Kansas showcases its capabilities. The Jayhawks possess a top-15 defense alongside a star player, but Peterson’s recurring injury issues are concerning as they approach March (having missed 10 out of their 20 games to date).

On paper, BYU embodies the talent a coach dreams of possessing. AJ Dybantsa is in contention for the top pick in the 2026 NBA draft, Richie Saunders is among the top shooters nationally, and Rob Wright III averages 5.2 assists within an elite offense. Nevertheless, the Cougars rank 13th in turnover rate in the Big 12, giving away the ball on 17% of their possessions.

Tom Izzo is enthusiastic about this Michigan State roster, and Jeremy Fears Jr. (8.9 assists per game) steps up as the right leader for a team exhibiting some of the best defense in the nation. Yet, the Spartans paved the way for turnovers on one-fifth of their possessions in Big Ten matchups.

Florida has turned things around over the past six weeks, reigniting discussions about a potential back-to-back national championship for the Gators. but, their lineups, which feature Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee, rank just 126th in combined efficiency among their two-player formations in the SEC, according to EvanMiya.

Darius Acuff Jr. is projected to be a lottery pick in the NBA draft, leading Arkansas and the most potent offense in the SEC. but, John Calipari’s difficulty lies in the fact that opposing teams have shot 57% against the Razorbacks inside the arc, placing them 15th out of 16 SEC teams in that statistic at KenPom.

Vanderbilt has been likened to Indiana football as an unexpected underdog, highlighted by Tyler Tanner’s evolution into a potential NBA first-round draft selection — despite not being a high school recruit according to ESPN. but, the Commodores hold the worst defense inside the SEC, which could impede their journey past the Sweet 16, even though they have the talent to get there. The same can be said for first-year coach Ryan Odom at Virginia, or Alabama’s LaBaron Philon Jr. (22.2 PPG) and their high-octane offense. — Medcalf

Tier IV: Final Four or first-round exit?

St. John’s Red Storm
Kentucky Wildcats
Louisville Cardinals
North Carolina Tar Heels
Tennessee Volunteers

This group remains somewhat of a mystery, even as we approach three months into the season. They could face early elimination in the NCAA tournament, or rank among the final four teams in Indianapolis. Any outcome would not be unexpected.

St. John’s experienced a shaky start, marked by erratic guard performance and a non-conventional Rick Pitino defense. but, after stringing together six consecutive wins leading into this week and achieving better role distribution in recent weeks, this preseason top-five team cannot be counted out.

Kentucky faced scrutiny as one of the most disappointing teams when their record stood at 5-4, and again at 9-6; they eventually strung together five consecutive victories prior to a 25-point road loss to Vanderbilt on Tuesday. Injuries heavily impacted Mark Pope’s squad, but the return of Kam Williams and Jayden Quaintance could provide significant boosts in their offensive and defensive capabilities, respectively.

Louisville seeks to regain momentum now that Mikel Brown Jr. has made his return from a back injury that sidelined him for over a month. The duo of Brown and Ryan Conwell in the backcourt stands out. Yet, despite the star freshman’s availability, the Cardinals hold only one victory over a guaranteed NCAA tournament team.

North Carolina showcased both its potential and limitations recently, trailing by 16 points against Virginia only to triumph later, overpowering the Cavaliers through size and shooting. With Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar forming a formidable frontcourt duo, Hubert Davis requires consistent point guard performance and defensive effort.

play

Caleb Wilson throws down two-handed slam for UNC

Caleb Wilson throws down two-handed slam for UNC

Under Rick Barnes, Tennessee has typically been known for its elite defenses, often facing offensive scoring droughts. This season, though, both facets have been lackluster in SEC play. Still, there’s latent potential with Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament at the helm, and the Volunteers demonstrated that promise against Alabama last weekend. Should the defense improve to reflect previous standards set under Barnes, Tennessee could become a formidable adversary. — Borzello

Tier V: Can win a game

Clemson Tigers
Georgia Bulldogs
SMU Mustangs
Iowa Hawkeyes
Auburn Tigers
NC State Wolfpack
Saint Mary’s Gaels
Saint Louis Billikens
Wisconsin Badgers
Villanova Wildcats
Utah State Aggies
Texas A&M Aggies
UCF Knights
Miami Hurricanes
UCLA Bruins
Ohio State Buckeyes
San Diego State Aztecs

This is a sizable group, where many teams have exhibited the capability to achieve a win in the NCAA tournament — albeit some may find themselves sweating on Selection Sunday.

Several have already demonstrated the ability to topple elite competition: Auburn recently won at Florida and grabbed victories over Arkansas and St. John’s. Wisconsin scored its only defeat against Michigan in Ann Arbor, while UCLA has been largely inconsistent, particularly against stronger opponents but managed to beat Purdue and capture four of five games headed into the week. also, Georgia achieved a significant victory by thrashing Arkansas.

Others are blessed with exceptional individual talents that can lead them to success: Iowa boasts Bennett Stirtz, while NC State counts Darrion Williams among its stars. Ohio State features a wealth of talent within its starting five, with Bruce Thornton shining as a legitimate star. Boopie Miller is another notable player positioning SMU in this section.

For some, it’s a matter of faith in their talent, coaching, or fundamental game philosophy.

Randy Bennett’s teams at Saint Mary’s consistently pose a threat in March. Saint Louis is regarded as a true top-25 contender and may very well reach beyond the first round of the tournament. Utah State routinely finds itself in tightly contested first-round matchups. Villanova, Texas A&M, and Miami have all exceeded expectations in their inaugural seasons under new head coaches. UCF boasts a win over Kansas and remains a competitive Big 12 force. Meanwhile, San Diego State might have had a rough start but currently holds the top position in the Mountain West and is experienced come March. — Borzello

Tier VI: Potential Cinderellas

Miami (Ohio) RedHawks
Murray State Racers
McNeese Cowboys
Liberty Flames
Yale Bulldogs
UNC Wilmington Seahawks

Over the past three NCAA tournaments, 10 teams outside the power five conferences that entered as double-digit seeds managed to win at least one game. The teams listed here each possess the potential to join that number, starting with Miami (OH), who emerged victorious in all of their initial 21 matchups this season. The RedHawks are hitting 39% of their three-point attempts and 62% of their inside shots, both ranking within the top 20 nationally.

Led by first-year head coach Bill Armstrong, McNeese has capitalized on a 25% turnover rate against their foes, surpassing the performance of last season’s Cowboys squad, who advanced to the second round under Will Wade.

Meanwhile, Murray State guard Javon Jackson (17.0 PPG) is among the finest mid-major players in the nation. UNC-Wilmington showcases depth with seven players averaging nine points per game, which could pose a threat in March. Liberty ranks second nationally with a shooting percentage of 52%, while Yale‘s 41% success rate from beyond the arc also places them among the elite.

If your favorite team faces one of these squads in March, they might find themselves unexpectedly heading home earlier than anticipated. — Medcalf