The women’s final at the Australian Open will feature world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka facing off against No. 5 Elena Rybakina on Saturday. Sabalenka has secured two titles in Melbourne, yet it was Rybakina who most recently triumphed over her in the year-end WTA Finals.
Who will emerge victorious? Our analysts provide their insights.
How can Sabalenka beat Rybakina?
D’Arcy Maine: For Sabalenka, competing in her fourth straight final in Melbourne, it will boil down to one factor: Nerves.
Her performance has been outstanding throughout the tournament and the season, carrying an impressive 11-match win streak into the final. also, she has not lost a set in 2026. Sabalenka clearly has the skill to secure her fifth major title and third at this event, but she has faced challenges with nerves in major finals previously (consider last year’s Australian Open and French Open) and can sometimes be overwhelmed by the moment’s significance. She managed to regain control during the US Open last season and will need to summon that same mental clarity and strength on Saturday to clinch the win.
Jake Michaels: Is it overly simplistic to say she should just continue with the strategy that has worked for her so far? Perhaps. Yet, Sabalenka has not dropped a set in her six matches and continues to play her usual fierce and aggressive style, leaving her opponents with no answers. While her temperament in pressure moments has been widely discussed, let’s not forget that she recently set a record as the first player in the Open era to win 20 consecutive tiebreaks. This remarkable feat underscores her ability to reshape the narrative surrounding her mental game.
Jarryd Barca: Sabalenka’s game plan isn’t overly complex; the real challenge lies in executing it under pressure and expectations—a feat she struggled with last year. As the world’s best player and a two-time champion in Melbourne, it’s essential for her to embrace her strengths. Tactically, targeting Rybakina’s second serve and denying her comfortable holds and short rallies will be crucial. If Sabalenka can apply pressure early and pull her opponent into exchanges that favor her powerful shot-making, it will enable her to play aggressively and control the tempo. Above all, she must trust herself and assert her dominance from the start.
What can Rybakina do to overcome Sabalenka?
Maine: Since Wimbledon, Rybakina has won more matches than anyone else, and it’s been exciting to see her regain her form and confidence after facing various challenges both on and off the court. A lot of her success stems from her serving ability, which will need to shine against Sabalenka. though her serve has faltered at times in this tournament—particularly against Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals and Jessica Pegula in the semifinals—she must minimize those lapses against Sabalenka, who can match her aggressive play and powerful strokes. A high percentage on her first serve could prove crucial for her chances.
The last encounter at the year-end tour championships in November can serve as a template, where Rybakina delivered 13 aces and won 72.3% of her first serves to take the title. She’ll need a similar showing on Saturday to secure her second major title.
Michaels: Rybakina’s success at this tournament and others largely relies on her serve, which is one of the strongest in women’s tennis. Her powerful serve has generated numerous easy points throughout her career. Rybakina has recorded a tournament-leading 41 aces on her way to the final, nearly double the number that Sabalenka has managed. importantly, Rybakina has also advanced to Saturday’s final without dropping a single set, winning 74% of points on her first serves.
Last year’s Australian Open final demonstrated a winning strategy against Sabalenka. Big-hitting Madison Keys matched the power and aggression from the other side of the net and consistently disrupted the world No. 1’s game.
Rybakina has all the necessary components to replicate that approach.
Barca: If anyone possesses the tools to beat Sabalenka right now, it’s Rybakina. She provides equal power, strikes her groundstrokes cleanly, and she too has yet to lose a set this tournament. yet, there were tense moments, including a nerve-wracking second-set tiebreak against Pegula, where she faced earlier match points. A victory for Rybakina will depend on her serving; she has proven to be the best server in the draw, delivering more aces than anyone, and maintaining a high first-serve percentage to gain free points is crucial to keep Sabalenka from settling into her returns. After that, variety will be key. Changing pace, pulling Sabalenka in different directions, and finding the right moments to strike will be essential. If Rybakina can control the tempo, she will be a formidable opponent.
Who will be the champion?
Maine: If their 2023 matchup in the Australian Open final serves as any indication, this rematch promises to be thrilling. As has been the case in most of their previous encounters, it could easily go either way. While Sabalenka leads their overall series, Rybakina holds a 6-5 advantage in their hard-court head-to-head, winning four of the last five on that surface. importantly, in their last duel at the 2025 WTA Finals, Rybakina defeated Sabalenka—known for her tiebreak prowess—in a tiebreak without dropping a point.
There’s no question Sabalenka is eager to reclaim her title in Melbourne and has been playing like a woman on a mission throughout the Australian season. yet, Rybakina’s quiet determination and resurgence make it hard for me to bet against her. Rybakina for the win in three tight sets.
Michaels: I initially predicted Sabalenka would win before the tournament, so it would be unwise to change my pick now. That said, this final feels evenly matched, and both women have solid arguments for lifting the trophy.
Experience might ultimately tip the scales. This marks Sabalenka’s fourth consecutive Australian Open final and seventh straight final at a hard-court major. Meanwhile, Rybakina hasn’t reached a slam final since losing to Sabalenka in 2023. Before this tournament, her best result at a hard-court major was the fourth round. I’m sticking with Sabalenka in three intense sets.
Barca: Sabalenka is the favorite, though with some caution. She leads their head-to-head 8-6, has a stronghold on Melbourne, and was my pre-tournament pick to win the title. yet, Rybakina is always a threat, and that feels more true now. Having won 19 of her last 20 matches since late last season and boasting nine consecutive wins over top-10 players is impressive. Backing up solid wins over Swiatek and Pegula is a significant accomplishment, and she holds a recent victory over Sabalenka in the WTA Finals title match. Nevertheless, there’s an aura about Melbourne and its importance to Sabalenka. History and legacy are at stake, alongside the redemption she seeks after a title she perhaps should have secured in 2025. This clash of power has all the ingredients for a three-set thriller, but I’ll stick with the world No. 1, Sabalenka.
