The Seattle Seahawks are predicted to be favored against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX. Regardless of the outcome, the champion will be among the biggest preseason long shots to secure the Lombardi Trophy in more than twenty years.
Seattle started as a 3.5-point favorite but quickly moved to -4.5, based on DraftKings odds. The sportsbooks varied in their opening spreads, ranging from -3.5 to -5. After the initial betting settled on Sunday night, Seahawks -4.5 or -5 became the most widely accepted line.
In terms of the money line, Seattle stands at -230 to win the championship, while New England is at +190. DraftKings set the total at 46.5, which remains unchanged as of Monday morning, although some sportsbooks have lowered it to 46.
Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook, estimates that “approximately five percent” of the Super Bowl’s total handle on the primary markets occurs within the first 24 hours.
“As anticipated, the initial action largely comes from sharp bettors, whose wagers help to optimize the market,” Feazel stated via email. “Once the line stabilizes, recreational bettors start to engage, with betting volume gradually increasing as kickoff nears. This early involvement from professionals is a consistent and critical aspect of the Super Bowl betting lifecycle, crucial for ensuring competitive pricing for a wider audience.”
If the Patriots finish as underdogs, it will end an eight-year streak of Super Bowls where they were favored; the last time they were the underdog was in 2002 when they surprised the St. Louis Rams for their first championship title.
This particular Super Bowl was also noteworthy as it marked the last time a team with +6000 preseason championship odds or longer claimed victory, according to data from SportsOddsHistory.com. Both this season’s Patriots and Seahawks began with +6000 odds, according to DraftKings.
The long Super Bowl odds for both teams, both early in the season and beforehand, have created some concerns for sportsbooks.
BetMGM, which initially listed Seattle at -5, is facing significant futures exposure on Seattle. Senior trading manager Tristan Davis noted that “bettors would love to see the Seahawks win.” The sportsbook has already paid out $1.4 million from a $50,000 preseason bet on Seattle winning the NFC at +2800 odds.
Conversely, New England remains the largest liability for DraftKings, having been listed as high as 120-1 after Week 3. Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN at the start of the playoffs that there is “money on [the Patriots] everywhere.”
Underdogs have won the last three Super Bowls outright and have covered the spread in five consecutive games. Historically, underdogs hold a 23-36 straight-up record and a 30-27-2 record against the spread in the Super Bowl, according to ESPN Research.
ESPN’s David Purdum contributed to this report.
