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Pamela Maldonado
Multiple Authors
Golf may have been on an upward trend, yet last week’s happenings showcased just how quickly this sport can bring you back to earth. I’m toning down my expectations here, particularly in a weaker field where last year’s champion scored 17 under.
This tournament feels like a cryptic puzzle, with recent performance, comparable courses, and suitability factors that just don’t quite fit together.
I focused on players who excel at keeping the ball in play, managing around the greens, and avoiding high scores. In scenarios like this, I prioritize placement over picking outright winners.
Sometimes the key lies in playing it safe, managing your bets, and protecting your bankroll while figuring out the puzzle.
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
(with ties) and may fluctuate.
Top Betting Picks
Christiaan Bezuidenhout: Top 30 (+118)
Complete odds:
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Top 20 +168
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Top 10 +360
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Top 5 +760
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To win +4700
If PGA National favors precision, touch, and patience over raw power, Bezuidenhout fits that mold perfectly. He’s among the top short-game players here, ranking fourth in strokes gained around the green and second in putting, backed by solid Bermuda numbers. His knack for sinking mid-range putts and saving pars when he misses greens could prove crucial, especially with water hazards and scrambling being vital—where he’s top five in the latter and top 20 in bogey avoidance, both of which are critical for PGA National.
Off the tee, Bezuidenhout hits fairways consistently, plays strategically, and his accuracy allows for clear looks at the greens for birdie chances. This is primarily a profile-based pick. If his iron game is steady and his usual short game shows up, his consistent cut-making reflects a reliable baseline. Should his putting warm up, Bezuidenhout has a viable chance to score low.
Andrew Putnam: Top 40 (+144)
Full odds:
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Top 30 +255
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Top 20 +375
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Top 10 +880
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Top 5 +2050
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To win +16500
Prospects at PGA National improve with control, effective short-game execution, and minimal errors. Recently, Putnam has ranked in the top 10 around the greens, top 20 in putting, and top five in both bogey avoidance and driving accuracy. This course often leads to missed greens and challenging Bermuda lies. Putnam adeptly saves pars and maintains his rounds when others falter.
He recently finished T2 at the American Express but missed the cut at Torrey Pines. I don’t penalize him for Torrey since it heavily favors length and stellar ball-striking, which isn’t as relevant at PGA National, making this a better bounce-back scenario for him.
While winning may be a stretch, Putnam consistently makes cuts, avoids double bogeys, and secures solid finishes by staying in play and converting inside 10 feet. He maintains control, effectively cleans up around the greens, and minimizes damage. The outright odds are akin to a lottery ticket—think of it as small stakes rather than a serious investment.
Considerations for Daily Fantasy
Engage in daily fantasy golf at DraftKings.
Both Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,700) and Andrew Putnam ($6,800) are solid options for DFS. While betting and fantasy might seem different, both hinge on the same principles: course compatibility, pricing discrepancies, and potential outcomes.
The concern is overexposure. If both players miss the cut, losses impact both betting and DFS. A correlated upside brings potential correlated downsides as well. If you’re comfortable with that risk, it’s part of effective bankroll management.
DFS Player to Avoid
Nicolai Højgaard, $9,400: He started on my long list but the deeper I analyzed, the more I felt he should be avoided. His ball-striking potential is appealing; however, supporting statistics are hard to overlook: 91st around the greens, 80th in scrambling, and 98th in fairways gained. This combination can be precarious on a narrow course where missing greens and recovery shots are commonplace.
Other analysts share these concerns; sometimes his driver falters, and he can be inconsistent with ball-striking while his short game lacks reliability. When he’s aggressive and fairways are wide, the upside seems promising, but minor errors can lead to poor judgments and errant drives that quickly accumulate.
If this were a course favoring drivers, I’d be more inclined to support the odds and DFS valuation, but PGA National is bogey-sensitive, emphasizing strong short games. The potential is enticing, but this isn’t the right venue for him.
