The playoff divisional round for the 2025 NFL season features two exciting matchups, and we’ve got everything you need to know.
This Sunday, the Texans aim for their first-ever victory in a divisional round game against the Patriots. Meanwhile, quarterback Matthew Stafford and the Rams travel to Chicago to face quarterback Caleb Williams and the Bears.
Our NFL Nation reporters provide insights from the locker room, highlighting key commentary from this week. Analytics writer Seth Walder shares essential stats for each game, while NFL analyst Ben Solak makes bold predictions. Analyst Matt Bowen points out a key matchup to watch. Betting expert Pamela Maldonado identifies intriguing betting opportunities for both games, and staff writer Kevin Seifert discusses officiating details. also, our Football Power Index (FPI) delivers game projections, with four analysts—Eric Moody, Maldonado, Solak, and Walder—offering final score predictions for every game.
Everything you need is gathered in one place as you prepare for an action-packed weekend of NFL playoff football. Let’s dive into the full divisional lineup.
Jump to a matchup:
BUF-DEN | SF-SEA
HOU-NE | LAR-CHI
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET | ESPN | NE -3 (40.5 O/U)
Insights on the Texans: Houston is in the divisional round for the third consecutive year but holds a record of 0-6 in these games historically. QB C.J. Stroud sees this clash as a vital opportunity to prove themselves. “It’s an exciting chance for us to go out there and aim for a win against a great team,” Stroud expressed. “That’s our sole focus right now.” — DJ Bien-Aime
Insights on the Patriots: Coach Mike Vrabel praised the Texans as the toughest defense his team has faced this season. A critical aspect for New England involves the left side of their offensive line, featuring rookies Will Campbell and Jared Wilson. Campbell, who faced DE Will Anderson Jr. in college, anticipates this pivotal matchup. — Mike Reiss
Key stat: The Patriots average 8.6 air yards per attempt, ranking third in the league, while the Texans’ defense allows only 4.8 air yards per attempt—the league’s best. Will QB Drake Maye have enough protection and available receivers to launch passes downfield? — Walder
Bold prediction: Expect rookie receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel to capitalize on big plays against man coverage as Houston’s offense continues to thrive. although they will miss WR Nico Collins (concussion), their receiving depth is more robust than most realize. — Solak
Matchup X factor: Texans S Calen Bullock. His ability to mitigate the Patriots’ vertical passing game is vital, and he has made four interceptions this season, including a pick-six against Aaron Rodgers in the wild-card round. — Bowen
Intriguing bet: Patriots -3. This figure sets New England up for a gritty home victory. While Houston’s defense can travel, their offense sometimes falters, especially given their injuries. New England can absorb pressures, control field position, and make crucial plays to secure a late win. — Maldonado
Officiating insight: The Texans have faced more special teams penalties than all but two teams, according to EPA. They’ve accumulated the tenth-fewest total penalties on special teams (18) but have done so amidst several crucial infractions this season. — Seifert
Injuries: Texans | Patriots
Maldonado’s pick: Patriots 24, Texans 17
Moody’s pick: Patriots 20, Texans 13
Solak’s pick: Texans 24, Patriots 17
Walder’s pick: Patriots 27, Texans 20
FPI prediction: NE, 51.7% (average margin of 0.6 points)
Matchup essentials: Texans’ Collins ruled out vs. Patriots due to concussion… Can Texans WR Kirk replicate his wild-card performance? … Highlights from past and present with Patriots’ coach Vrabel
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | LAR -3.5 (48.5 O/U)
Insights on the Rams: The temperature in Chicago is expected to be in the single digits at kickoff, with a wind chill below zero. Conversely, it was in the 80s in Los Angeles during the Rams’ preparations. According to ESPN Research, QB Matthew Stafford has never played in conditions below 20 degrees at kickoff. but, Stafford believes the cold affects both teams: “You just go out there and execute as best you can.” — Sarah Barshop
Insights on the Bears: Coach Ben Johnson described the Bears’ running game as having “dipped a little,” something they wanted to avoid, especially this late in the season. Chicago aims to ignite their run game, as they recorded season-low rushing yards in Week 18 and the wild-card round. “We need to manage our runs efficiently and create explosive plays,” Johnson stated. — Courtney Cronin
Key stat: The Rams rank 10th in EPA allowed per dropback but fall to 29th against play-action plays, which is concerning against a Bears team that utilizes play-action on 31% of its dropbacks—one of the highest rates in the league. — Walder
Bold prediction: Bears QB Caleb Williams will rush for over 60 yards and score a rushing touchdown. The Rams boast a fierce pass rush, yet Williams is the best escape artist they’ve faced this season, reminiscent of Bryce Young’s success against them last season. — Solak
Matchup X factor: Rams edge rusher Jared Verse will play a crucial role in containing Williams, needing to keep him in the pocket and limit his outside plays. Verse had 7.5 sacks and 49 pressures this season, matched up against Bears LT Theo Benedet. — Bowen
Intriguing bet: Rams -4. Chicago can rally late, but vulnerabilities in pressure and coverage will allow Stafford to establish control early and execute drives. Red zone efficiency significantly influences playoff outcomes, and the Rams hold the league’s third-best rate (46.2%). — Maldonado
Officiating insight: Referee Shawn Hochuli’s crew averaged the second-most flags thrown per game (17.9). The Rams were the least penalized team (93 total), while drawing the fifth most from opponents (121). Meanwhile, the Bears were eighth for most committed penalties (139) while drawing the fewest from opponents (95). — Seifert
Injuries: Rams | Bears
Maldonado’s pick: Rams 38, Bears 30
Moody’s pick: Rams 30, Bears 24
Solak’s pick: Bears 33, Rams 31
Walder’s pick: Rams 33, Bears 28
FPI prediction: LAR, 61.8% (average margin of 4.5 points)
Matchup essentials: WR Adams: There’s no place like … the L.A. Rams … Why Bears QB Williams became emotional while honoring coach Johnson
Earlier games
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | CBS | DEN -1.5 (45.5 O/U)
Insights on the Bills: Buffalo aims to reach a second consecutive AFC Championship Game and Josh Allen’s third career appearance. but, the Bills’ offense is grappling with numerous wide receiver injuries (Tyrell Shavers, Gabe Davis, Joshua Palmer). Allen also faces injury challenges but fully participated in earlier practices. Protecting Allen from a Broncos defense that amassed 68 sacks this season will be critical. — Alaina Getzenberg
Insights on the Broncos: There is heightened drama for Denver, as Allen is seen by some fans as “the one who got away” after the team chose not to draft him in 2018. The Bills eliminated the Broncos from last year’s playoffs, and now they bring the league’s top rushing attack (159.6 yards per game) and leading rusher James Cook III (1,621 yards). especially, two teams that defeated Denver this season (the Colts and Chargers) rushed for over 100 yards. — Jeff Legwold
Key stat: It’s evident that run defense is the Bills’ Achilles’ heel, ranking 31st in EPA allowed per designed run. Can the Broncos exploit this weakness? They currently register a negative EPA per designed run, significantly lower than their EPA per dropback. even with this, their offensive strategy skews heavily towards passing. — Walder
Bold prediction: Broncos RB RJ Harvey will secure his first 100-yard game, focusing on controlling the clock against the formidable Bills’ offense. With J.K. Dobbins sidelined, it’s Harvey’s moment to shine. — Solak
Matchup X factor: Bills WR Brandin Cooks. With seven receptions for 159 yards in his last two outings, Cooks is a key deep threat for Allen, who will need explosive plays to emerge victorious. — Bowen
Intriguing bet: Under 46.5. Buffalo possesses offensive capabilities but faces Denver’s defense, the best in red zone efficiency (42.6%). Drive completion has been a struggle for the Broncos, indicating fewer touchdowns for both teams and longer possessions. — Maldonado
Officiating insight: The Broncos have committed an NFL-high 20 defensive pass interference penalties this season, including eight by CB Riley Moss. Their aggressive style has benefits, but it has also cost them 350 yards throughout the regular season. — Seifert
Injuries: Bills | Broncos
Maldonado’s pick: Broncos 20, Bills 17
Moody’s pick: Broncos 27, Bills 24
Solak’s pick: Broncos 19, Bills 13
Walder’s pick: Broncos 27, Bills 21
FPI prediction: DEN, 50.7% (average margin of 0.4 points)
Matchup essentials: How NFL players prepare for frigid games … The impact of DC Joseph on the Broncos’ defense … Bills’ WR Shavers played through a torn ACL against the Jaguars … Broncos aim to force more turnovers in the playoffs
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Fox | SEA -7 (45.5 O/U)
Insights on the 49ers: The Niners face the Seahawks again in quick succession after just 17 weeks since their last match. Coach Kyle Shanahan emphasized the importance of staying grounded and not overanalyzing their Week 18 loss. WR Kendrick Bourne views the quick games as beneficial due to the increased familiarity. — Nick Wagoner
Insights on the Seahawks: Seattle delivered a defensive showcase in Week 18, limiting the Niners to 173 total yards and a solitary field goal. If they hope to replicate that performance, strong tackling is essential, as Coach Mike Macdonald views the 49ers as a top offense in terms of yards after the catch. — Brady Henderson
Key stat: 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey recorded an NFL-low minus-180 rush yards over expected this season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. The Seahawks excel in run defense, making the ground game a lesser option for the Niners; passing to McCaffrey may yield better results. — Walder
Bold prediction: With Seahawks QB Sam Darnold battling an oblique injury, expect rookie QB Jalen Milroe to see goal-line action, executing a designed QB run for a score from the 2-yard line. The crowd will erupt! — Solak
Matchup X factor: Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III. He showed promise in Week 18 with four carries for 10 or more yards, amassing 97 rushing yards. Walker’s ability to find and exploit openings creates a tempo for the Seattle offense. — Bowen
Intriguing bet: Seahawks -7. Seattle controls the game’s pace, excelling on early downs while draining the clock. The San Francisco offense struggles under pressure, particularly without TE George Kittle (torn Achilles). Seattle has previously shown this strategy’s effectiveness in Week 18. — Maldonado
Officiating insight: This matchup features two of the NFL’s least-penalized teams, with the 49ers having the second-lowest penalties (102) and the Seahawks not far behind (117). Referee John Hussey’s crew averaged the fifth-fewest flags thrown per game (13.7). — Seifert
Injuries: 49ers | Seahawks
Maldonado’s pick: Seahawks 21, 49ers 10
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 30, 49ers 17
Solak’s pick: Seahawks 20, 49ers 13
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 23, 49ers 20
FPI prediction: SEA, 59.2% (average margin of 3.6 points)
Matchup essentials: 49ers’ Warner will not play vs. Seahawks … How the Seahawks transitioned to Darnold at QB
